000 AXNT20 KNHC 010548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW OVER 200 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N56W MOVING WNW 10 TO 15 KT PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 13N52W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS MORNING. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED ALONG 43W/44W FROM 13N-24N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER HIGH AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS NOTED. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 21N58W OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N61W TO 11N59W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 60W-63W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED FROM 24N89W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N91W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO BETWEEN 91W-96W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 21N17W ALONG 19N21W 9N31W TO 9N34W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 10N38W TO 9N42W THEN RESUMES NEAR 7N46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W AND IS BEING DISTORTED BY THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 22N42W TO 3N47W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-9N W OF THE TROUGH TO 56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 26W-43W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS IS GIVING THE GULF NEAR ZONAL EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IS BEING RE-ENFORCED OVER THE S GULF BY AN UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE E GULF AND GIVING THE S GULF S OF 24N E OF 88W ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS. AT 01/0300 UTC A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM S GEORGIA NEAR VALDOSTA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N87W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH TO JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR CEDAR KEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE IMMEDIATE N GULF COAST WATERS W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE SW COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE N GULF WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF MON THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED ALONG THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS COVERING THE AREA W OF 81W AND PRODUCING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-19N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER INLAND AREAS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE... AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL W OF 80W. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM E PANAMA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE IN THE GULF OF GONAVE... FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 76W-80W INCLUDING JAMAICA...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 74W-77W INCLUDING THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT REMAINS THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TO 30N65W COVERING THE W ATLC WITH A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AND AT 01/0300 UTC A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS NEAR 30N73W. AT 01/0000 UTC A 1019 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N65W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N63W TO 29N67W. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N56W AND 28N43W BUT ARE NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ABOUT 300 NM WSW OF THE AZORES. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS OBSERVED ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM 13N-29N E OF 40W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN SHIFT S TO NEAR 26N TUE. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES WILL MOVE FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW ATLC LATE WED OR EARLY THU AND FRI POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 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