000 AXNT20 KNHC 302352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N53W TO 15N52W TO 13N48W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE NEAR 13N48W. AN AREA OF INCREASED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 46W-53W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 43W-55W. THIS WAVE WARRANTS WATCHING AS SOME MODELS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 23N34W TO 17N34W TO 12N32W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MAXIMUM AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE VICINITY OF 22N32W. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH A RELATIVELY ROBUST 700 MB TROUGH ALONG 33W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 23N84W TO 11N82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. LOWER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND NEAR 700 MB MODEL EVALUATION DEPICT THE WAVE WELL. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 22N BETWEEN 75W-87W. A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE IS FURTHER S AT 10N82W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTEND FROM PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 75W-80W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N0W TO 17N10W TO THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 12N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N21W TO 14N28W TO 11N40W TO THE COAST OF SURINAME AT 9N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF SURINAME FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 51W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N87W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N96W TO 19N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 94W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 88W-93W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO MOVE W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH TO EXTEND FROM S GEORGIA TO SE LOUISIANA AND PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 70W-74W. FURTHERMORE...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO COSTA RICA PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-86W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N35W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 30N58W PRODUCING MORE FAIR WEATHER. ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT AND VISIBLE METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST FROM 16N-30N E OF 30W. ELSEWHERE...THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE BASIN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA SE OF SENEGAL THAT IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 10W-17W. OF INTEREST IN IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE CENTER FROM 29N-34N BETWEEN 58W-62W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA