000 AXNT20 KNHC 290604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON IS NEAR 25.0N 93.0W AT 29/0600 UTC. THIS POSITION FOR DON ALSO IS ABOUT 335 MILES/ 540 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. DON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY FOR DON IS ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. THE FORECAST/ADVISORY FOR DON IS ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 65 NM RADIUS OF 24N93W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N35W 12N38W TO 8N39W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 8N39W. AN INVEST WAS STARTED ON THE 8N39W LOW PRESSURE CENTER FOR THE PURPOSE OF STARTING GUIDANCE ON IT. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W...AND FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N20W 15N22W 11N22W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. A TROPICAL WAVE STARTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N68W. IT CROSSES THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 16N70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO COASTAL NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W. HISPANIOLA IS IN THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 18N TO 23N10W TO 19N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 13N24W TO 11N29W TO 12N36W...AND FROM 8N41W INTO NORTH CENTRAL FRENCH GUIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM DON THE MAIN ATTRACTION AT THIS MOMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 84W/85W FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. THE WESTERN END OF A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES FLORIDA ALONG 29N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N86W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE STARTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N68W. IT CROSSES THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 16N70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO COASTAL NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W. HISPANIOLA IS IN THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 16N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 14N80W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE NORTH OF 15N AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MAJORITY OF THE ATLC BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N39W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N50W THEN WESTWARD ALONG 30N TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ELSEWHERE...THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT