000 AXNT20 KNHC 281141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON IS NEAR 24.0N 89.8W AT 28/1200 UTC. THE POSITION OF DON IS ABOUT 545 MILES/874 KM TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. DON IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR DON ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. THE FORECAST/ADVISORY IS UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 17N INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS IN THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 96W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 17N32W TO 12N34W TO 6N33W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD TO THE GUYANA/VENEZUELA BORDER. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W. A TROPICAL WAVE STARTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N65W... PASSING ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO TO 16N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TO NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA ALONG 67W/68W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N73W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 21N83W TO 18N80W TO 16N70W AND 12N67W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 23N TO 24N5W 20N15W 12N16W TO 12N26W AND 5N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N38W TO 4N44W...AND BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER 4N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM DON IS ATTRACTING ALL THE ATTENTION AT THE MOMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N82W CENTRAL FLORIDA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER FLORIDA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N100W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE STARTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N65W...PASSING ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO TO 16N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA ALONG 67W/68W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N73W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO 9N78W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS HAITI FROM 20N72W TO 15N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 21N83W TO 18N80W TO 16N70W AND 12N67W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 84W...EASILY MAY BE RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM DON. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 13N AT THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO 10N75W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WESTERN COLOMBIA FROM THE BORDER WITH PANAMA TO 4N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N82W CENTRAL FLORIDA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER FLORIDA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N57W 19N62W AND BEYOND PUERTO RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 26N26W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 31N53W 27N63W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TOWARD THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT