000 AXNT20 KNHC 272345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM DON IS CENTERED NEAR 22.2N 87.0W AT 27/2100 UTC ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO...OR ABOUT 755 MI... 1220 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALSO SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FLEW OVER THE SYSTEM AND FOUND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45 KT EAST OF THE CENTER. WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 86W-89W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 15N27W TO 8N30W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 8N30W. THE SYSTEM IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N61W TO 11N65W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 58W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER PUERTO RICO FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 66W-69W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N0W TO 23N8W TO 19N13W TO 13N15W TO THE ATLANTIC AT 12N26W TO 8N30W TO 5N39W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 5N39W TO FRENCH GUIANA IN SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 14W-22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 37W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... T.S. DON IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING WNW. SEE ABOVE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N...OVER FLORIDA...AND OVER S MEXICO S OF 18N. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE W GULF S OF 28N AND W OF 91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT T.S. DON TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF...N FLORIDA... AND THE N GULF STATES. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 19N68W TO 14N70W MOVING W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO HAITI FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 66W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER E HONDURAS...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 82W-87W. EXPECT MOST AREAS IN THE CARIBBEAN TO HAVE SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SYSTEMS MOVE W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 32N53W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N81W. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED N OF 22N E OF 75W TO AFRICA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE MOVE W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA