000 AXNT20 KNHC 271152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N84W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC WAS 1.67 INCHES. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. ANYONE WHO LIVES NEAR THE COAST AND/OR ANYONE WHO HAS INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. NO PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT WITH THIS WAVE. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NEARBY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE WAVE... IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N53W 9N54W 8N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 25N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 13N60W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W AND 62W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 22N TO 22N5W TO 18N9W 19N14W 12N20W 10N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N29W TO 6N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N79W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE WEST OF 77W...COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE REMNANT OF A SMALL YUCATAN CHANNEL CYCLONIC CENTER...TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N96W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN MEXICO IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND BEYOND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THESE FEATURES ARE PUSHING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N84W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N85W...TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC WAS 1.67 INCHES. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL BASIN WITH AXIS ANALYZED ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE FROM 20N67W TO 14N68W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 85 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 25N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 13N60W NEAR BARBADOS. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W AND 62W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC WAS 0.48 INCHES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N79W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE WEST OF 77W...COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 28N25W AND 26N29W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 26N29W TO 32N40W AND 32N49W. A SECOND TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 32N49W... THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N53W...TO 13N60W NEAR BARBADOS AT THE EDGE OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W AND 62W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC WAS 0.48 INCHES. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 31N50W 28N60W 29N73W TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ALONG 29N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT/FG