000
AXNT20 KNHC 270002
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN NW 
FROM 25N83W TO 19N84W TO 14N84W MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ADDITIONAL 
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 76W-85W. THIS ACTIVITY COULD 
GENERATE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER SATURATED-HIGH 
TERRAIN AND RIVERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 17N21W TO 
11N23W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF THE 
WAVE. 

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FROM 19N54W 
TO 9N56W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A 
DEEP MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 51W-58W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N0W TO 17N7W TO THE AFRICAN 
COAST AT 18N16W TO 8N27W TO 7N38W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO 
6N45W TO 13N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N 
BETWEEN 24W-30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ 
FROM 11N45W TO 5N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 46W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. A WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CLUSTERS OF 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 
27N...OVER FLORIDA...AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FAIR 
WEATHER IS OVER THE SW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N95W. EXPECT THE 
TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA 
AND THE N GULF.        

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N64W TO 
13N66W MOVING W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
14N-18N BETWEEN 62W-67W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N 
COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND E NICARAGUA DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
EXPECT MOST AREAS IN THE CARIBBEAN TO HAVE SOME FORM OF 
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SYSTEMS MOVE W WITH THE 
TRADEWINDS. .   

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
SW TO 32N45W TO THE N BAHAMAS. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED N OF 20N E 
OF 75W TO AFRICA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES AN SURFACE TROUGH TO 
BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA