000 AXNT20 KNHC 261750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM 25N83W ACROSS FAR WEST CUBA TO 20N85W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 79W-85W. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WNW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD GENERATE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER SATURATED-HIGH TERRAIN AND RIVERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM 16N20W TO 9N23W MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS... ANALYZED FROM 19N54W TO 11N55W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150-300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W TO 16N19W. THEN...IT RESUMES SW OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N25W TO 7N30W TO 7N36W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO 9N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-15N E OF 28W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE EXTREME WEST PORTION OF THE ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 11N44W TO 5N45W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... NE FLOW ALOFT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVER MUCH OF THE GULF ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LINGER NEAR 21N94W. THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. THIS ENVIRONMENT ONLY ALLOWS FOR ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS DOTTING THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INDICATED BY DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 40-70 NM ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST STATES BETWEEN 83W-94W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE REACHES THE SE GULF WITH NO CONVECTION AT THE TIME. HOWEVER...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING CONVECTION TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS CROSSING WESTERN CUBA INTO EASTERN HONDURAS. THIS WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 79W-85W INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS CUBA. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WNW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD GENERATE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER SATURATED-HIGH TERRAIN AND RIVERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN... WITHIN 70 NM OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 17N64W TO 13N65W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60-120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH EASTERLY 10-20 KT TRADE WINDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS...ANCHORED BY A BROAD AND STRONG 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N27W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA REACHING THE FAR W ATLC TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100-130 NM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GENERATED BY DIFFLUENCE FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE FAR W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N50W WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA