000 AXNT20 KNHC 261106 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N16W 10N20W 8N27W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W... ACROSS CUBA ALONG 81W...PASSING OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 16N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALSO. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 19N TO 18N6W TO 19N13W 15N18W AND 8N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N26W TO 8N38W AND 5N49W...BECOMING INDISTINCT. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N16W 10N20W 8N27W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N78W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 78W AND FLORIDA/GEORGIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA...AND POSSIBLY IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N94W...ABOUT 200 NM TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO HAS WEAKENED...LEAVING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STILL ANOTHER CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 22N104W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W...ACROSS CUBA ALONG 81W...PASSING OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 16N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALSO. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N79W IN BETWEEN NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA AND CUBA. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 26N55W AND 23N55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHES THE SAINT LUCIA CHANNEL IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND BEYOND THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER...INCLUDING IN THE GOLFO DE URABA OF COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N78W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 78W AND FLORIDA/GEORGIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AZORES TO 31N30W 31N45W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N52W TO 23N55W TO THE SAINT LUCIA CHANNEL IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W...AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N41W TO 29N51W 27N66W AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT