000 AXNT20 KNHC 231733 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 18N31W TO 9N35W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO 20N BETWEEN 25W-40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 32W-39W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 20N60W TO 15N62W MOVING W-NW AT 20 KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 15N62W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 59W-66W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 23N94W TO 15N95W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SW GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER S MEXICO. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N0W TO 15N8W TO THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 08N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N20W TO 13N34W TO 07N50W TO 12N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 22W-28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 39W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 85W-88W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N96W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND THUS HAS EASTERLY FLOW N OF 25N. EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF TO MOVE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF IN 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO MOVE W AND DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 68W-74W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 83W-85W. THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 79W-84W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 39N28W AND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 31N51W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER BASIN-WIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N70W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF THE CENTER FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 67W-74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA