000 AXNT20 KNHC 230019 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011 ...DELETED TEXT FROM ATLC SECTION... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS CENTERED NEAR 46.9N 34.3W AS OF 2100 UTC MOVING NE AT 24 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON CINDY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 18N55W TO 11N57W MOVING W TO WNW NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 56W-61W...AND FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 60W-67W IMPACTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 54W-60W. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER...SOMETIMES STRONG...TO THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN TRPCL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 15N28W TO 7N33W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. A SLIGHT RIDGE OF MOISTURE WITH ENHANCED VALUES IS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 29W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 22N87W TO 16N91W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A CLUSTER OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO E OF THE AXIS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 84W-86W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 15N ALONG 15N10W 10N18W TO 11N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N23W ALONG 13N29W 7N41W 9N50W. A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 13W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N99W AND DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE PENINSULA. THE WAVE IS ALSO UNDER THE DIFFLUENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS COMBINATION IS ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 88W-91W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED MOISTURE VALUES ARE ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THIS AREA ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER WRN TENNESSEE...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF E OF 90W. STRONG AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N FLORIDA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN...AS WELL AS MOISTURE ACROSS THE ERN GULF. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVES WWD. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE WAVE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BRINGING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A LARGE CLUSTER IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 84W-86W. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS ACROSS MUCH OF CUBA...AND HAITI. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING PANAMA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 21N80W. WSW FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS DRY AIR IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE ERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLANDS N OF 13N EXTENDING WWD TO PUERTO RICO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AS THE WAVE MOVES WWD. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY BEGIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 40N30W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER BASIN-WIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 65W-75W ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO N AND E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ACTIVITY IS S OF 24N BETWEEN 54W-68W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 20N48W WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE NE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR 16N39W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC CENTERED S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 23N19W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON