000 AXNT20 KNHC 221100 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET AT 22/0900 UTC IS NEAR 36.7N 66.5W. BRET IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES BRET. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY AT 22/0900 UTC IS NEAR 44.5N 39.9W. CINDY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 25 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON CINDY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ABOUT 60 NM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N26W 11N27W 7N27W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 24W AND 31W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 13N54W 9N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W...PAST THE ISLE OF YOUTH...TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION/REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N TO CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND WHICH IS RELATED TO THE 21N77W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 20N...TO 17N2W 19N13W 12N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N29W TO 6N40W AND 7N49W...INTO NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W OFF THE AFRICA COAST...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 49W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 25N100W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS WEAKENING NEAR 22N91W NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN THE COAST AND 100W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO 23N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 94W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK...AS BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N93W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N77W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CUBA. THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN EVIDENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 21N77W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. RAINSHOWERS IN GENERAL COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 74W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W...PAST THE ISLE OF YOUTH...TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION/REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N TO CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND WHICH IS RELATED TO THE 21N77W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 34N43W TO 28N55W 20N61W 17N64W 16N62W TO THE WEST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS IN ADVANCE OF THE 18N52W 9N54W TROPICAL WAVE. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE 34N43W 16N62W LINE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 67W AND 72W...IN AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH TIME. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 36N45W TO 33N53W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N68W...TO A CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N77W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CUBA. THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN EVIDENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 31N68W COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 34N43W TO 28N55W 20N61W 17N64W 16N62W TO THE WEST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS IN ADVANCE OF THE 18N52W 9N54W TROPICAL WAVE. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE 34N43W 16N62W LINE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N...MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 30N61W 27N71W...BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST ALONG 26N. 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