000 AXNT20 KNHC 220542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... BRET HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY AT 22/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET AT 22/0300 UTC IS NEAR 35.6N 68.1W. BRET IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES BRET. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY AT 22/0300 UTC IS NEAR 43.5N 42.8W. CINDY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 24 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON CINDY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. SCATTERED MODERATE TO RAINSHOWERS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION FROM 42N TO 43N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N24W 10N26W 7N26W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N50W 12N52W 7N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N82W TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION/ REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 19N...TO 16N5W 16N15W 12N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N29W TO 6N35W AND 8N51W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN AND 13W AND 14W...INCLUDING SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W...AND 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 25N100W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS WEAKENING NEAR 21N90W NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 22N100W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO 23N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 94W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK...AS BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THIS BASIN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N77W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CUBA. THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN EVIDENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 21N77W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. RAINSHOWERS IN GENERAL COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 86W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N82W TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION/REMNANT RAINSHOWERS SPECIFICALLY ARE FROM 19N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER AND WHICH IS JUST RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 30N50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 26N56W 22N58W 19N61W 15N61W NEAR DOMINICA IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS IN ADVANCE OF THE 18N50W 12N52W 7N52W TROPICAL WAVE. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT ARE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE 30N50W 15N61W LINE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 37N46W TO 33N57W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N67W...TO A CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N77W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CUBA. THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN EVIDENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 32N67W COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 30N50W TO 26N56W 22N58W 19N61W 15N61W NEAR DOMINICA IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS IN ADVANCE OF THE 18N50W 12N52W 7N52W TROPICAL WAVE. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE 30N50W 15N61W LINE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N...MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N40W TO 30N50W 27N68W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT