000 AXNT20 KNHC 211138 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 21/0900 UTC IS ABOUT 400 NM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...NEAR 32.8N 72.6W. BRET IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 08 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY AT 21/0900 UTC IS NEAR 36.3N 51.6W. CINDY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 20 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON CINDY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 39N TO 41N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 33N TO 35N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. ITCZ ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CUBA...TO A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 50 NM TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...TO 13N79W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND A 19N74W CYCLONIC CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 16N...TO 18N10W 13N16W 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N24W TO 6N30W 5N40W AND 6N44W...BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER 6N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W...AND FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS OF SURINAME AND GUYANA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 25N101W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 85W AND 106W IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MEXICO. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR 20N90W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 93W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT AND WEAK...AS BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THIS BASIN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N74W OFF THE COAST OF HAITI. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 81W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN HAITI AND 81W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 72W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA...AND THEN BEYOND A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 50 NM TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CLUSTERS...IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W IN COLOMBIA AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM BRET IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 NM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA. THE POSITION OF BRET IS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 28N47W...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ALONG 28N. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W...IN THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 19N74W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT