000 AXNT20 KNHC 201156 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 85 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 20/0900 UTC IS NEAR 31.1N 74.4W MOVING NORTHEAST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 280 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 31N74W. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM CUBA TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT IS FORECAST FOR BRET FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N42W 6N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ...FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE SPANS THE AREA OF THE WAVE AND THE PRECIPITATION. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS HAITI FROM THE CAICOS ISLANDS TO THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N73W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 64W AND 75W. A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CENTERED AROUND 18N88W...IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/NORTHEASTERN BELIZE. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS/BELIZE/EASTERN GUATEMALA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N TO 18N10W...EXITING THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N16W TO 5N26W AND 11N39W...AND FROM 7N40W TO 5N45W. THE ITCZ IS INDISTINCT AFTER THE MONSOON TROUGH ENDS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SECTIONS...TO 22N94W. PART OF THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS UNDER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW BECAUSE OF THE 18N88W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 23N TO 28N TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS HAITI FROM THE CAICOS ISLANDS TO THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N73W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 64W AND 75W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CENTERED AROUND 18N88W...IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/NORTHEASTERN BELIZE. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS/ BELIZE/EASTERN GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 77W...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO PANAMA...AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING ON 19/1200 UTC WAS 1.34 INCHES. THE 24-HOUR TOTAL FOR BARBADOS DURING THE SAME TIME WAS 0.91 INCHES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 58W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COMES FROM THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WARM FRONT STARTS NEAR 33N54W AND CONNECTS TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N59W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N62W AND JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA TO 34N72W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC WAS 1.16 INCHES...AND FOR 19/1200 UTC IT WAS 1.35 INCHES. MORE RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA REACHING 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N46W TO 28N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR AND APPARENTLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS ALONG 25N43W TO 18N51W AND 10N60W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 27N58W AND 24N75W IN THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 201156 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 85 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 20/0900 UTC IS NEAR 31.1N 74.4W MOVING NORTHEAST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 280 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 31N74W. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM CUBA TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT IS FORECAST FOR BRET FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N42W 6N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ...FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE SPANS THE AREA OF THE WAVE AND THE PRECIPITATION. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS HAITI FROM THE CAICOS ISLANDS TO THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N73W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 64W AND 75W. A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CENTERED AROUND 18N88W...IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/NORTHEASTERN BELIZE. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS/BELIZE/EASTERN GUATEMALA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N TO 18N10W...EXITING THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N16W TO 5N26W AND 11N39W...AND FROM 7N40W TO 5N45W. THE ITCZ IS INDISTINCT AFTER THE MONSOON TROUGH ENDS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SECTIONS...TO 22N94W. PART OF THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS UNDER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW BECAUSE OF THE 18N88W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 23N TO 28N TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS HAITI FROM THE CAICOS ISLANDS TO THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N73W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 64W AND 75W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CENTERED AROUND 18N88W...IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/NORTHEASTERN BELIZE. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS/ BELIZE/EASTERN GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 77W...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO PANAMA...AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING ON 19/1200 UTC WAS 1.34 INCHES. THE 24-HOUR TOTAL FOR BARBADOS DURING THE SAME TIME WAS 0.91 INCHES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 58W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COMES FROM THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WARM FRONT STARTS NEAR 33N54W AND CONNECTS TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N59W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N62W AND JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA TO 34N72W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC WAS 1.16 INCHES...AND FOR 19/1200 UTC IT WAS 1.35 INCHES. MORE RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA REACHING 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N46W TO 28N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR AND APPARENTLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS ALONG 25N43W TO 18N51W AND 10N60W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 27N58W AND 24N75W IN THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT