000 AXNT20 KNHC 200613 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 20/0300 UTC IS NEAR 30.6N 75.0W MOVING NORTHEAST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 30N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 4 HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAVE WARMED QUITE A BIT DURING THE LAST 4 HOURS...AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS AND SPAN THE BAHAMAS FROM THE COAST OF CUBA TO 30N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT IS FORECAST FOR BRET FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N37W 12N39W. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN A CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 30W AND 46W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 18N TO 25N. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS...WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA FROM 22N70W TO 16N71W AND TO LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH STARTS NEAR 22N69W... TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 14N72W 13N75W TO 10N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND HISPANIOLA FROM THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N87W...THROUGH BELIZE...INTO EASTERN GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CENTERED AROUND 18N88W...IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/NORTHEASTERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN LA ISLA DE JUVENTUD OF CUBA TO CUBA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N TO 22N5W 16N13W TO 5N24W 11N37W...AND 7N40W TO 6N45W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N45W TO 6N55W ALONG THE COAST OF SURINAME. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. ONLY REMNANT ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS FROM 23N TO 27N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA FROM 22N70W TO 16N71W AND TO LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH STARTS NEAR 22N69W... TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 14N72W 13N75W TO 10N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N87W...THROUGH BELIZE...INTO EASTERN GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CENTERED AROUND 18N88W...IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/ NORTHEASTERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND HISPANIOLA FROM THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS. A WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN LA ISLA DE JUVENTUD OF CUBA TO CUBA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING ON 19/1200 UTC WAS 1.34 INCHES. THE 24-HOUR TOTAL FOR BARBADOS DURING THE SAME TIME WAS 0.91 INCHES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN STEERING THE STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 32N62W. THE STATIONARY FRONT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 33N TO 34N BETWEEN 53W AND 68W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC WAS 1.75 INCHES. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200 UTC WAS 1.35 INCHES. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 32N TO 40N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS ARE FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 54W AND 67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA... THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 29N45W AND 24N74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 200613 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 20/0300 UTC IS NEAR 30.6N 75.0W MOVING NORTHEAST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 30N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 4 HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAVE WARMED QUITE A BIT DURING THE LAST 4 HOURS...AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS AND SPAN THE BAHAMAS FROM THE COAST OF CUBA TO 30N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT IS FORECAST FOR BRET FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N37W 12N39W. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN A CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 30W AND 46W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 18N TO 25N. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS...WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA FROM 22N70W TO 16N71W AND TO LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH STARTS NEAR 22N69W... TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 14N72W 13N75W TO 10N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND HISPANIOLA FROM THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N87W...THROUGH BELIZE...INTO EASTERN GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CENTERED AROUND 18N88W...IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/NORTHEASTERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN LA ISLA DE JUVENTUD OF CUBA TO CUBA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N TO 22N5W 16N13W TO 5N24W 11N37W...AND 7N40W TO 6N45W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N45W TO 6N55W ALONG THE COAST OF SURINAME. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. ONLY REMNANT ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS FROM 23N TO 27N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA FROM 22N70W TO 16N71W AND TO LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH STARTS NEAR 22N69W... TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 14N72W 13N75W TO 10N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N87W...THROUGH BELIZE...INTO EASTERN GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CENTERED AROUND 18N88W...IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/ NORTHEASTERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND HISPANIOLA FROM THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS. A WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN LA ISLA DE JUVENTUD OF CUBA TO CUBA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING ON 19/1200 UTC WAS 1.34 INCHES. THE 24-HOUR TOTAL FOR BARBADOS DURING THE SAME TIME WAS 0.91 INCHES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN STEERING THE STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 32N62W. THE STATIONARY FRONT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 33N TO 34N BETWEEN 53W AND 68W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC WAS 1.75 INCHES. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200 UTC WAS 1.35 INCHES. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 32N TO 40N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS ARE FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 54W AND 67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA... THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 29N45W AND 24N74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT