000 AXNT20 KNHC 191158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 19/0900 UTC IS NEAR 29.3N 76.4W MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W... AND FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT IS FORECAST FOR BRET FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 7N33W 17N35W BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE IN A CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W ARE TO THE EAST OF A 21N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEY MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N53W 15N56W 20N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. THIS WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A 32N43W 15N48W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE 21N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM 22N76W TO WESTERN JAMAICA TO 14N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 21N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 15N76W...AND THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 19N83W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N85W...INLAND TO THE AREA THAT IS NEAR THE BORDER OF EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA/HONDURAS. ONE CELL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N TO 22N5W 20N12W...EXITING AFRICA ALONG 14N17W 11N28W 9N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N33W TO 6N40W AND 6N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 9N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N42W 6N45W 8N50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES ON TOP OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 22N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...WITH LITTLE APPARENT PRECIPITATION. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 18N95.5W MAY BE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT IS AROUND TROPICAL STORM DORA...THAT IS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W ARE TO THE EAST OF A 21N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEY MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N53W 15N56W 20N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. THIS WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A 32N43W 15N48W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE 21N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM 22N76W TO WESTERN JAMAICA TO 14N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 21N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 15N76W...AND THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 19N83W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N85W...INLAND TO THE AREA THAT IS NEAR THE BORDER OF EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA/HONDURAS. ONE CELL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W...IN THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PASSING. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 30N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N60W 33N66W 34N69W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 21N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N43W TO 25N44W AND 15N48W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 191158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 19/0900 UTC IS NEAR 29.3N 76.4W MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W... AND FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT IS FORECAST FOR BRET FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 7N33W 17N35W BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE IN A CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W ARE TO THE EAST OF A 21N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEY MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N53W 15N56W 20N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. THIS WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A 32N43W 15N48W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE 21N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM 22N76W TO WESTERN JAMAICA TO 14N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 21N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 15N76W...AND THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 19N83W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N85W...INLAND TO THE AREA THAT IS NEAR THE BORDER OF EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA/HONDURAS. ONE CELL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N TO 22N5W 20N12W...EXITING AFRICA ALONG 14N17W 11N28W 9N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N33W TO 6N40W AND 6N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 9N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N42W 6N45W 8N50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES ON TOP OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 22N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...WITH LITTLE APPARENT PRECIPITATION. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 18N95.5W MAY BE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT IS AROUND TROPICAL STORM DORA...THAT IS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W ARE TO THE EAST OF A 21N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEY MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N53W 15N56W 20N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. THIS WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A 32N43W 15N48W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE 21N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM 22N76W TO WESTERN JAMAICA TO 14N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 21N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 15N76W...AND THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 19N83W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N85W...INLAND TO THE AREA THAT IS NEAR THE BORDER OF EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA/HONDURAS. ONE CELL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W...IN THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PASSING. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 30N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N60W 33N66W 34N69W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 21N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N43W TO 25N44W AND 15N48W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT