000 AXNT20 KNHC 190600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 19/0300 UTC IS NEAR 28.7N 76.6W MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT IS FORECAST FOR BRET FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. THE SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W ARE TO THE EAST OF A 20N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEY MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W...AND FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THIS WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A 32N43W 15N48W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE 20N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM 22N75W TO JAMAICA TO 13N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 20N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 15N74W...AND THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 18N81W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N85W JUST OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS...CONTINUING BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR. SOME RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N TO 22N5W 20N12W...EXITING AFRICA ALONG 16N16W 12N25W 10N33W AND 7N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N42W TO 9N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N37W 6N44W 7N50W 10N57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES ON TOP OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW COMPARATIVELY WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS THERE. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY BE MORE RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM DORA THAT IS ABOUT 320 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. THE SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W ARE TO THE EAST OF A 20N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEY MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM 22N75W TO JAMAICA TO 13N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 20N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 15N74W...AND THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 18N81W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N85W JUST OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS...CONTINUING BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR. SOME RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR EXTREME SOUTHERN BELIZE/EASTERN GUATEMALA. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THE TROPICAL WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PASSING. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 33N57W TO 31N73W 31N73W 30N78W AND 27N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N54W TO 31N59W TO 32N63W 34N67W AND 33N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 51W AND 52W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 20N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W ARE TO THE EAST OF THE 20N70W CYCLONIC CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N43W TO 25N44W AND 15N48W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 190600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 19/0300 UTC IS NEAR 28.7N 76.6W MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT IS FORECAST FOR BRET FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. THE SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W ARE TO THE EAST OF A 20N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEY MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W...AND FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THIS WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A 32N43W 15N48W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE 20N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM 22N75W TO JAMAICA TO 13N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 20N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 15N74W...AND THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 18N81W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N85W JUST OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS...CONTINUING BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR. SOME RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N TO 22N5W 20N12W...EXITING AFRICA ALONG 16N16W 12N25W 10N33W AND 7N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N42W TO 9N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N37W 6N44W 7N50W 10N57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES ON TOP OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW COMPARATIVELY WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS THERE. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY BE MORE RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM DORA THAT IS ABOUT 320 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. THE SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W ARE TO THE EAST OF A 20N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEY MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM 22N75W TO JAMAICA TO 13N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 20N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 15N74W...AND THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 18N81W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N85W JUST OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS...CONTINUING BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR. SOME RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR EXTREME SOUTHERN BELIZE/EASTERN GUATEMALA. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THE TROPICAL WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PASSING. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 33N57W TO 31N73W 31N73W 30N78W AND 27N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N54W TO 31N59W TO 32N63W 34N67W AND 33N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 51W AND 52W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 20N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W ARE TO THE EAST OF THE 20N70W CYCLONIC CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N43W TO 25N44W AND 15N48W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT