000 AXNT20 KNHC 190006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM BRET IS CENTERED NEAR 28.3N 77.0W AT 18/2100 UTC MOVING NNE AT 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 74W-79W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 76W-78W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 19N30W TO 10N32W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS STILL CONFINED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EAST CARIBBEAN ANALYZED ALONG 62 W S OF 21N...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TPW. BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NE BASIN W OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 15N E OF 68W...AS WELL AS OVER THE FAR SE BASIN S OF MARTINIQUE E OF 63W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM 22N74W TO 12N77W MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A NARROW AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. WAVE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 15N. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SENEGAL OVER WEST AFRICA... ENTERING THE EAST ATLC ALONG 14N17W 12N24W 9N33W 7N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT EXTENDING TO 9N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. WITHIN THIS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED TO THE E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 26N BETWEEN 88W-93W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N89W TO 27N92W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 82W-89W... ASSOCIATED TO AN NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE CONUS SEA BOARD INTO THE EXTREME SE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A BROAD OMEGA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IOWA DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE GULF PRODUCING NE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. THE EASTERNMOST WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 62W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NE BASIN W OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA INCLUDING THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS OVER THE FAR SE BASIN S OF MARTINIQUE E OF 63W. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN ALONG 75W PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 15N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA S OF 14N W OF 75W...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW DOTTING THE DISCUSSION AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR W ATLC N OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS NEAR OUR NORTHERN DISCUSSION AREA ANALYZED FROM 32N70W ALONG 31N60W 32N53W BECOMING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS N TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ANCHORED BY STRONG 1033 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N30W...LEAVING THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 190006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM BRET IS CENTERED NEAR 28.3N 77.0W AT 18/2100 UTC MOVING NNE AT 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 74W-79W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 76W-78W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 19N30W TO 10N32W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS STILL CONFINED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EAST CARIBBEAN ANALYZED ALONG 62 W S OF 21N...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TPW. BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NE BASIN W OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 15N E OF 68W...AS WELL AS OVER THE FAR SE BASIN S OF MARTINIQUE E OF 63W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM 22N74W TO 12N77W MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A NARROW AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. WAVE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 15N. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SENEGAL OVER WEST AFRICA... ENTERING THE EAST ATLC ALONG 14N17W 12N24W 9N33W 7N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT EXTENDING TO 9N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. WITHIN THIS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED TO THE E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 26N BETWEEN 88W-93W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N89W TO 27N92W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 82W-89W... ASSOCIATED TO AN NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE CONUS SEA BOARD INTO THE EXTREME SE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A BROAD OMEGA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IOWA DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE GULF PRODUCING NE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. THE EASTERNMOST WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 62W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NE BASIN W OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA INCLUDING THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS OVER THE FAR SE BASIN S OF MARTINIQUE E OF 63W. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN ALONG 75W PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 15N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA S OF 14N W OF 75W...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW DOTTING THE DISCUSSION AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR W ATLC N OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS NEAR OUR NORTHERN DISCUSSION AREA ANALYZED FROM 32N70W ALONG 31N60W 32N53W BECOMING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS N TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ANCHORED BY STRONG 1033 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N30W...LEAVING THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA