000 AXNT20 KNHC 181135 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 18/1200 UTC IS NEAR 27.4N 77.5W MOVING NORTHEAST 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 27N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF BRET IS NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 320 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ALONG 55W/56W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 18N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. THIS WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A 30N41W 15N48W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 25N64W-TO-HISPANIOLA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND A THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT REACHES ITS SOUTHERNMOST POINT NEAR 32N55W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 25N64W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 14N81W AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVE EASILY MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 24N TO 25N4W 20N11W...EXITING AFRICA ALONG 14N17W 10N24W 7N30W AND 5N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N39W TO 2N47W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 26W...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 38W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 31N73W AND 29N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 27N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST RAINSHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO 22N100W. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE INFLUENCED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THIS PRECIPITATION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N68W...BEYOND HISPANIOLA...TO 16N76W...TO 14N81W...AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...FROM 10N TO THE COAST ALONG 74W...THROUGH 10N80W...BEYOND THE BORDER AREA OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH 9N83W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 33N68W 31N73W 29N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 27N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N64W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N68W...BEYOND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W...SOME DISSIPATING WITH TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N45W TO 15N48W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM ARE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W...TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. MIATCMAT2 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 181135 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 18/1200 UTC IS NEAR 27.4N 77.5W MOVING NORTHEAST 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 27N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF BRET IS NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 320 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ALONG 55W/56W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 18N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. THIS WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A 30N41W 15N48W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 25N64W-TO-HISPANIOLA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND A THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT REACHES ITS SOUTHERNMOST POINT NEAR 32N55W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 25N64W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 14N81W AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVE EASILY MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 24N TO 25N4W 20N11W...EXITING AFRICA ALONG 14N17W 10N24W 7N30W AND 5N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N39W TO 2N47W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 26W...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 38W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 31N73W AND 29N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 27N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST RAINSHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO 22N100W. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE INFLUENCED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THIS PRECIPITATION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N68W...BEYOND HISPANIOLA...TO 16N76W...TO 14N81W...AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...FROM 10N TO THE COAST ALONG 74W...THROUGH 10N80W...BEYOND THE BORDER AREA OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH 9N83W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 33N68W 31N73W 29N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 27N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N64W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N68W...BEYOND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W...SOME DISSIPATING WITH TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N45W TO 15N48W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM ARE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W...TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. MIATCMAT2 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT