000 AXNT20 KNHC 171742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 28N78W MOVING SW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 76W-79W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 26W FROM 11N-18N MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 22N50W TO 16N52W TO 10N53W MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 48W-52W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W S OF 17N TO MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-64W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA FROM 25N0W TO 24N7W TO THE COAST AT 21N17W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 16N23W TO 10N26W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 20W-24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 14W-29W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 30W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 95W-100W MOVING W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 85W-89W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 10 KT SE SURFACE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT... MORE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA...AS WELL AS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 9N76W TO BEYOND 8N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 75W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER COSTA RICA... NICARAGUA....AND E HONDURAS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 82W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS NEAR JAMAICA AND HAITI FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 71W-76W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N56W 30N60W 30N70W 28N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 65W-70W...AND FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 54W-60W. A LARGE 1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 43N33W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N45W 28N52W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVE W AT 20 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 171742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 28N78W MOVING SW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 76W-79W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 26W FROM 11N-18N MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 22N50W TO 16N52W TO 10N53W MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 48W-52W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W S OF 17N TO MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-64W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA FROM 25N0W TO 24N7W TO THE COAST AT 21N17W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 16N23W TO 10N26W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 20W-24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 14W-29W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 30W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 95W-100W MOVING W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 85W-89W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 10 KT SE SURFACE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT... MORE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA...AS WELL AS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 9N76W TO BEYOND 8N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 75W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER COSTA RICA... NICARAGUA....AND E HONDURAS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 82W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS NEAR JAMAICA AND HAITI FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 71W-76W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N56W 30N60W 30N70W 28N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 65W-70W...AND FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 54W-60W. A LARGE 1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 43N33W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N45W 28N52W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVE W AT 20 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA