000 AXNT20 KNHC 151050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 32W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER SATELLITE WINDS. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WAS RELOCATED ALONG 13N44W TO 6N47W BASED ON A MID LEVEL ROTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/ CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS FROM 22N80W TO 13N81W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE WAVE ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 19N13W S INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N16W TO 11N22W THEN W ALONG 11N35W TO 10N38W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 10N50W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 30W-37W AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 41W-57W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 16W-26W AND FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 42W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SE OKLAHOMA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E TO THE GEORGIA COAST AND COVERS THE N GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA W INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR PANAMA CITY THEN INLAND OVER LOUISIANA TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN FLORIDA AND TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE S GULF CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF TUXPAN AND E OF COATZACOALCOS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 24N86W TO NEAR 24N93W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE. THE N PORTION OF THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE FAR SW GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LOW IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 81W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THAT AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N52W WSW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT LUCIA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO N OF THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 14N70W COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN LEAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W ALONG 11N82W INTO S NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W CONTINUING INLAND OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO S MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 14N TO THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS E OF 72W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 73W-79W...AND FROM 9N-15N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND GRADUALLY MOVE S INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH COULD PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. A SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT NEAR 11N82W AND TRACK WNW INTO CENTRAL AMERICA SAT AND SUN. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN ON SUN WITH THE N PORTION INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N W OF 60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W ALONG 30N73W TO 31N78W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA TO N ALABAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-32N W OF 54W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND INLAND OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N50W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N52W THEN WSW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT LUCIA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 50W-54W AND FROM 14N-18N W OF 57W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES THROUGH 32N42W SW ALONG 25N60W THEN W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FRI AND SAT IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS OVER THE W ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N65W BY TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW 000 AXNT20 KNHC 151050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 32W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER SATELLITE WINDS. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WAS RELOCATED ALONG 13N44W TO 6N47W BASED ON A MID LEVEL ROTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/ CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS FROM 22N80W TO 13N81W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE WAVE ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 19N13W S INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N16W TO 11N22W THEN W ALONG 11N35W TO 10N38W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 10N50W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 30W-37W AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 41W-57W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 16W-26W AND FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 42W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SE OKLAHOMA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E TO THE GEORGIA COAST AND COVERS THE N GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA W INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR PANAMA CITY THEN INLAND OVER LOUISIANA TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN FLORIDA AND TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE S GULF CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF TUXPAN AND E OF COATZACOALCOS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 24N86W TO NEAR 24N93W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE. THE N PORTION OF THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE FAR SW GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LOW IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 81W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THAT AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N52W WSW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT LUCIA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO N OF THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 14N70W COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN LEAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W ALONG 11N82W INTO S NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W CONTINUING INLAND OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO S MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 14N TO THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS E OF 72W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 73W-79W...AND FROM 9N-15N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND GRADUALLY MOVE S INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH COULD PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. A SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT NEAR 11N82W AND TRACK WNW INTO CENTRAL AMERICA SAT AND SUN. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN ON SUN WITH THE N PORTION INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N W OF 60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W ALONG 30N73W TO 31N78W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA TO N ALABAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-32N W OF 54W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND INLAND OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N50W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N52W THEN WSW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT LUCIA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 50W-54W AND FROM 14N-18N W OF 57W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES THROUGH 32N42W SW ALONG 25N60W THEN W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FRI AND SAT IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS OVER THE W ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N65W BY TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW