000 AXNT20 KNHC 142330 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 18N29W TO 12N31W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 13N43W TO 5N46W MOVING W AT 20 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS SEEN WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MOSTLY WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 42W-48W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 22N72W TO 12N78W MOVING WNW AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 76W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 75W-79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 66W-72W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N0W TO 15N15W TO THE COAST AT 11N16W TO 11N33WW. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N33W TO 11N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 17W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 22W-33W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 42W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 89W-95W. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER S GEORGIA AND S ALABAMA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER N FLORIDA N OF 29N BETWEEN 80W-88W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 79W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTH MEXICO FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 89W-105W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N86W MOVING W. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVES IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO N COSTA RICA TO BEYOND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 63W-74W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO. THIS MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT N OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EMBEDDED SURFACE LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM AND PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE... CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 68W-73W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO S GEORGIA NEAR 31N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 40N29W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N40W 25N55W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 51W-62W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 142330 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 18N29W TO 12N31W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 13N43W TO 5N46W MOVING W AT 20 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS SEEN WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MOSTLY WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 42W-48W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 22N72W TO 12N78W MOVING WNW AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 76W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 75W-79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 66W-72W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N0W TO 15N15W TO THE COAST AT 11N16W TO 11N33WW. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N33W TO 11N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 17W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 22W-33W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 42W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 89W-95W. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER S GEORGIA AND S ALABAMA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER N FLORIDA N OF 29N BETWEEN 80W-88W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 79W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTH MEXICO FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 89W-105W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N86W MOVING W. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVES IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO N COSTA RICA TO BEYOND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 63W-74W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO. THIS MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT N OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EMBEDDED SURFACE LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM AND PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE... CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 68W-73W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO S GEORGIA NEAR 31N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 40N29W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N40W 25N55W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 51W-62W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA