000 AXNT20 KNHC 141755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N26W 14N28W 10N29W. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MASS OF MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N61W 14N63W 10N64W AT THE VENEZUELA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N60W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 17N72W...TO 13N73W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATED FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 75W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 75W TO THE NORTH OF 16N75W 14N67W 13N60W. THIS IS RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 19N54W AND BEYOND. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 24N TO 17N10W TO 10N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N30W TO 11N40W... AND FROM 8N42W TO THE BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA AND BRAZIL NEAR 4N52W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF 29N...IN THE GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATES AROUND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS ON TOP OF THE WESTERNMOST POINT OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACTUALLY COVERS THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 83W AND 94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N INLAND TO 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NEAR A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS THE SAME LOW CENTER THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ALSO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N84W ON TOP OF THE WESTERNMOST POINT OF CUBA. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EVEN EXTENDS FROM THE 22N84W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 13N85W IN NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 75W TO THE NORTH OF 16N75W 14N67W 13N60W. THIS IS RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 19N54W AND ENDS NEAR 13N61W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N60W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 17N72W...TO 13N73W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATED FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 75W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 12N78W...ACROSS AND BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 41N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 33N69W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT STILL IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF THIS BULLETIN...REACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N52W...TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N54W...TOWARD 13N61W AT THE EDGE OF THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATED FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 75W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 24N58W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 141755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N26W 14N28W 10N29W. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MASS OF MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N61W 14N63W 10N64W AT THE VENEZUELA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N60W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 17N72W...TO 13N73W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATED FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 75W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 75W TO THE NORTH OF 16N75W 14N67W 13N60W. THIS IS RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 19N54W AND BEYOND. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 24N TO 17N10W TO 10N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N30W TO 11N40W... AND FROM 8N42W TO THE BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA AND BRAZIL NEAR 4N52W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF 29N...IN THE GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATES AROUND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS ON TOP OF THE WESTERNMOST POINT OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACTUALLY COVERS THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 83W AND 94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N INLAND TO 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NEAR A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS THE SAME LOW CENTER THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ALSO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N84W ON TOP OF THE WESTERNMOST POINT OF CUBA. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EVEN EXTENDS FROM THE 22N84W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 13N85W IN NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 75W TO THE NORTH OF 16N75W 14N67W 13N60W. THIS IS RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 19N54W AND ENDS NEAR 13N61W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N60W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 17N72W...TO 13N73W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATED FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 75W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 12N78W...ACROSS AND BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 41N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 33N69W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT STILL IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF THIS BULLETIN...REACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N52W...TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N54W...TOWARD 13N61W AT THE EDGE OF THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATED FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 75W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 24N58W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT