000 AXNT20 KNHC 141134 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 18N24W 9N28W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC IS ALONG 14N39W TO 7N40W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE WAS RELOCATED FARTHER W DUE TO TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWING A SURGE OF MOISTURE WELL W OF THE PREVIOUS WAVE LOCATION. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ REGION WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 35W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 20N69W TO 13N72W MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO PRECEDE A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS ALSO AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS NOT PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 58W-66W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 23N ALONG 16N11W 12N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 11N29W 9N44W 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 13W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 20N97W THAT IS MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 25N COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 25N87W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NRN GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-93W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THIS AREA. ALOFT...MAINLY NELY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN TEXAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IS BEING DRAWN IN THE NELY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE W ATLC WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE FAIR WEATHER. WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY POP UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN GULF WHERE THE MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGHER. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NW CARIBBEAN IS CURRENTLY UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AS DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEING WRAPPED AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N83W. SOME MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 77W-83W. THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MOIST CONDITIONS INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC JUST S OF MEXICO...ACROSS GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND ACROSS NICARAGUA TO NRN COLOMBIA. LARGE CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY N OF COLOMBIA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W...AND N OF PANAMA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 77W-81W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ENHANCED MOISTURE ALSO TRAILS THE WAVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS SOME OF THESE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHICH HAS REPORTED OVER 7 INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. WITH THE WAVE AND MOISTURE BEHIND IT APPROACHING...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. CURRENTLY...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N-19N E OF 66W. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 22N51W TO 13N67W. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN AND ERN CARIBBEAN AS THE AREAS OF MOISTURE BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS MOVE WWD. ALSO...MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SRN MEXICO HAS ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR DEADLY FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN ITS NWD POSITION WITH POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS FORMING ALONG THE AXIS. THE W-SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL DRAW SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THESE AREAS. COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT DUE TO MOUNTAINS THIS CREATES A FORMULA TO EQUAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS SCENARIO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 41N28W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS BASIN-WIDE. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN ATLC CENTERED OVER TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE N OF THE AREA ALONG 69W SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 61W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE RIDGE ALONG 53W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE MAIN TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 52W-61W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 38N37W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM SPAIN TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 18N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON 000 AXNT20 KNHC 141134 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 18N24W 9N28W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC IS ALONG 14N39W TO 7N40W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE WAS RELOCATED FARTHER W DUE TO TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWING A SURGE OF MOISTURE WELL W OF THE PREVIOUS WAVE LOCATION. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ REGION WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 35W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 20N69W TO 13N72W MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO PRECEDE A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS ALSO AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS NOT PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 58W-66W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 23N ALONG 16N11W 12N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 11N29W 9N44W 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 13W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 20N97W THAT IS MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 25N COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 25N87W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NRN GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-93W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THIS AREA. ALOFT...MAINLY NELY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN TEXAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IS BEING DRAWN IN THE NELY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE W ATLC WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE FAIR WEATHER. WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY POP UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN GULF WHERE THE MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGHER. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NW CARIBBEAN IS CURRENTLY UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AS DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEING WRAPPED AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N83W. SOME MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 77W-83W. THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MOIST CONDITIONS INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC JUST S OF MEXICO...ACROSS GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND ACROSS NICARAGUA TO NRN COLOMBIA. LARGE CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY N OF COLOMBIA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W...AND N OF PANAMA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 77W-81W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ENHANCED MOISTURE ALSO TRAILS THE WAVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS SOME OF THESE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHICH HAS REPORTED OVER 7 INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. WITH THE WAVE AND MOISTURE BEHIND IT APPROACHING...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. CURRENTLY...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N-19N E OF 66W. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 22N51W TO 13N67W. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN AND ERN CARIBBEAN AS THE AREAS OF MOISTURE BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS MOVE WWD. ALSO...MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SRN MEXICO HAS ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR DEADLY FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN ITS NWD POSITION WITH POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS FORMING ALONG THE AXIS. THE W-SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL DRAW SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THESE AREAS. COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT DUE TO MOUNTAINS THIS CREATES A FORMULA TO EQUAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS SCENARIO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 41N28W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS BASIN-WIDE. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN ATLC CENTERED OVER TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE N OF THE AREA ALONG 69W SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 61W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE RIDGE ALONG 53W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE MAIN TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 52W-61W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 38N37W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM SPAIN TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 18N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON