000 AXNT20 KNHC 140538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA AND WILL BE ADDED TO THE NEXT ANALYSIS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC IS ALONG 16N31W TO 7N37W MOVING W 15 KT. RECENT DATA FROM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE OF MOISTURE SLIGHTLY W OF THE CURRENT WAVE LOCATION NEAR 40W. THIS INDICATES THAT THE WAVE AXIS IS PROBABLY IN THAT VICINITY. SINCE DURING THE LIFE OF THIS WAVE ITS SURFACE REPRESENTATION HAS BEEN WEAK...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WAVE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WWD PROPAGATION THAT WAS SLOWER THAN THE ACTUAL WAVE. BASED ON THIS...THE WAVE WILL BE RELOCATED ON THE NEXT ANALYSIS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 21N69W TO 11N71W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO PRECEDE A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS ALSO AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS NOT PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 65W-67W...AND ACROSS HAITI FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 72W-75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 58W-64W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 22N ALONG 18N11W 11N20W 10N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N30W ALONG 7N44W 6N57W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 19W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 13W-17W...AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS NOW DISSIPATED OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...A SURFACE CIRCULATION STILL REMAINS INLAND AROUND A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 19N98W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN MEXICO. A CLUSTER OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 92W-94W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 26N COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 26N88W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS...REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-90W. ALOFT...MAINLY NELY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN TEXAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 23N96W WITH CIRCULATION COVERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IS BEING DRAWN IN THE NELY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE W ATLC WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE FAIR WEATHER. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY STILL INDICATES ENHANCED MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NRN GULF. WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TODAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NRN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NW CARIBBEAN IS CURRENTLY UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AS DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEING WRAPPED AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N82W. SOME MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS 15N-23N BETWEEN 77W-82W. THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MOIST CONDITIONS INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC JUST S OF MEXICO...ACROSS GUATEMALA...THE EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ACROSS NICARAGUA TO NRN COLOMBIA. LARGE CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS VENEZUELA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 64W-68W...ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 71W-76W...AND N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 79W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-83W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE THAT WAS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN A DAY OR SO AGO HAS NOW SHIFTED W ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W. ENHANCED MOISTURE ALSO TRAILS THE WAVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS SOME OF THESE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHICH HAS REPORTED OVER 7 INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF HAITI FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 72W-75W...AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N E OF 67W. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 23N52W TO 13N64W. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN AND ERN CARIBBEAN AS THE AREAS OF MOISTURE BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS MOVE WWD. ALSO...MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SRN MEXICO HAS ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR DEADLY FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT FARTHER N WITH POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS FORMING ALONG THE AXIS. THE W-SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL DRAW SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THESE AREAS. COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT DUE TO MOUNTAINS THIS CREATES A FORMULA TO EQUAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS SCENARIO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 40N27W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS BASIN-WIDE. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN ATLC CENTERED OVER TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG 52W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE MAIN TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS PRODUCING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM N OF 24N BETWEEN 51W-65W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 37N37W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM SPAIN TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 19N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON 000 AXNT20 KNHC 140538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA AND WILL BE ADDED TO THE NEXT ANALYSIS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC IS ALONG 16N31W TO 7N37W MOVING W 15 KT. RECENT DATA FROM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE OF MOISTURE SLIGHTLY W OF THE CURRENT WAVE LOCATION NEAR 40W. THIS INDICATES THAT THE WAVE AXIS IS PROBABLY IN THAT VICINITY. SINCE DURING THE LIFE OF THIS WAVE ITS SURFACE REPRESENTATION HAS BEEN WEAK...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WAVE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WWD PROPAGATION THAT WAS SLOWER THAN THE ACTUAL WAVE. BASED ON THIS...THE WAVE WILL BE RELOCATED ON THE NEXT ANALYSIS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 21N69W TO 11N71W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO PRECEDE A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS ALSO AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS NOT PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 65W-67W...AND ACROSS HAITI FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 72W-75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 58W-64W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 22N ALONG 18N11W 11N20W 10N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N30W ALONG 7N44W 6N57W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 19W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 13W-17W...AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS NOW DISSIPATED OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...A SURFACE CIRCULATION STILL REMAINS INLAND AROUND A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 19N98W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN MEXICO. A CLUSTER OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 92W-94W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 26N COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 26N88W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS...REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-90W. ALOFT...MAINLY NELY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN TEXAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 23N96W WITH CIRCULATION COVERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IS BEING DRAWN IN THE NELY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE W ATLC WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE FAIR WEATHER. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY STILL INDICATES ENHANCED MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NRN GULF. WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TODAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NRN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NW CARIBBEAN IS CURRENTLY UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AS DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEING WRAPPED AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N82W. SOME MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS 15N-23N BETWEEN 77W-82W. THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MOIST CONDITIONS INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC JUST S OF MEXICO...ACROSS GUATEMALA...THE EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ACROSS NICARAGUA TO NRN COLOMBIA. LARGE CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS VENEZUELA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 64W-68W...ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 71W-76W...AND N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 79W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-83W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE THAT WAS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN A DAY OR SO AGO HAS NOW SHIFTED W ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W. ENHANCED MOISTURE ALSO TRAILS THE WAVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS SOME OF THESE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHICH HAS REPORTED OVER 7 INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF HAITI FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 72W-75W...AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N E OF 67W. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 23N52W TO 13N64W. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN AND ERN CARIBBEAN AS THE AREAS OF MOISTURE BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS MOVE WWD. ALSO...MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SRN MEXICO HAS ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR DEADLY FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT FARTHER N WITH POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS FORMING ALONG THE AXIS. THE W-SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL DRAW SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THESE AREAS. COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT DUE TO MOUNTAINS THIS CREATES A FORMULA TO EQUAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS SCENARIO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 40N27W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS BASIN-WIDE. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN ATLC CENTERED OVER TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG 52W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE MAIN TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS PRODUCING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM N OF 24N BETWEEN 51W-65W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 37N37W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM SPAIN TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 19N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON