000 AXNT20 KNHC 132353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N29W TO 9N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 19N65W TO 11N69W MOVING W AT 20 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS SEEN WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 61W-68W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND S MEXICO ALONG 97W S OF 24N MOVING NW AT 20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 95W-99W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N0W TO 18N3W TO 15N14W TO 12N20W TO 10N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N34W TO 6N50W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 6N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 16W-19W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 21W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 45W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N89W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W GULF. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND BETWEEN LOUISIANA AND GEORGIA N OF 30N BETWEEN 84W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 80W-82W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 90W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N89W PRODUCING EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE N GULF. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N97W OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO AFTER A HEAVY AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVES IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO S NICARAGUA TO BEYOND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 67W-76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND NICARAGUA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 77W-87W. THIS MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EMBEDDED SURFACE LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM AND PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 69W-80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 40N26W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG 32N45W 25N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N53W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 50W-64W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 132353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N29W TO 9N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 19N65W TO 11N69W MOVING W AT 20 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS SEEN WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 61W-68W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND S MEXICO ALONG 97W S OF 24N MOVING NW AT 20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 95W-99W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N0W TO 18N3W TO 15N14W TO 12N20W TO 10N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N34W TO 6N50W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 6N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 16W-19W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 21W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 45W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N89W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W GULF. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND BETWEEN LOUISIANA AND GEORGIA N OF 30N BETWEEN 84W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 80W-82W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 90W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N89W PRODUCING EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE N GULF. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N97W OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO AFTER A HEAVY AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVES IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO S NICARAGUA TO BEYOND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 67W-76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND NICARAGUA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 77W-87W. THIS MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EMBEDDED SURFACE LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM AND PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 69W-80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 40N26W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG 32N45W 25N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N53W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 50W-64W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA