000 AXNT20 KNHC 130005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N25W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 17N57W TO 8N61W MOVING W AT 20KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS SEEN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 54W-61W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HONDURAS ALONG 86W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 82W-86W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N0W TO 24N13W TO 12N19W TO 6N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 21W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN EAST TO WEST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF 24N. THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS 5-10 KT EASTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 89W-91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 95W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 88W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 80W-82W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 34N87W PRODUCING EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO BEYOND S NICARAGUA ALONG 10N73W 11N80W 11N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 70W-75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 78W-82W. THIS MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EMBEDDED SURFACE LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM AND PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 67W-77W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 40N27W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE N BAHAMAS ALONG 32N46W 27N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SW OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 55W-60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 130005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N25W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 17N57W TO 8N61W MOVING W AT 20KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS SEEN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 54W-61W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HONDURAS ALONG 86W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 82W-86W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N0W TO 24N13W TO 12N19W TO 6N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 21W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN EAST TO WEST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF 24N. THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS 5-10 KT EASTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 89W-91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 95W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 88W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 80W-82W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 34N87W PRODUCING EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO BEYOND S NICARAGUA ALONG 10N73W 11N80W 11N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 70W-75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 78W-82W. THIS MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EMBEDDED SURFACE LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM AND PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 67W-77W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 40N27W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE N BAHAMAS ALONG 32N46W 27N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SW OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 55W-60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA