000 AXNT20 KNHC 111115 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TRPCL ATLC EXTENDS FROM NEAR 15N51W TO 6N56W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO PRECEDE A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION 180 NM E OF THE AXIS...AND WITHIN 100 NM W OF THE AXIS FROM 8N-10N. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS JUST W OF JAMAICA FROM 18N79W TO 12N80W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN...AND JUST W OF THE HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES IN THE AREA. THE WAVE LIES UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING ENHANCE NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 78W-81W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALSO FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 78W-89W. IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE WHAT IS CAUSED MORE BY THE WAVE OR MORE BY THE UPPER LEVEL INFLUENCE. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDS FROM 23N95W TO 16N94W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS BEING DRAWN AROUND THE SRN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF WHICH IS LIMITED CONVECTION TO AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 95W-97W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 22N ALONG 23N9W 16N19W 10N28W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 10N28W ALONG 8N49W 9N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG A LINE 250 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 17W-32W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS CAUSING AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SRN MEXICO. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH OFF THE NW COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N84W. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN ALABAMA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR WRN GULF CENTERED OVER NRN TEXAS. DRY AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE SRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERTURBS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC AND ACROSS NRN FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE EFFECTS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO BETWEEN SARASOTA AND FORT MYERS. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH SOME STRONGER ACTIVITY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE WWD TOWARDS MEXICO AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N86W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CENTERED N OF THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER. THIS PATTERN IS CREATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THIS AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO ABOVE A TROPICAL WAVE W OF JAMAICA ALONG 79W/80W. THIS COMBINATION IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 78W-85W...FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 85W-89W...AND N OF JAMAICA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 75W-77W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF 11N ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS NRN COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N LATER IN THE WEEK ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND THE NRN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL CONCENTRATE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THESE AREAS. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS IN ELY 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS. A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE NOTES IN THE ELY FLOW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY S OF ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE BASIN LATER IN THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE WRN ATLC MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN ALABAMA WITH ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING TO 58W. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 37N56W 30N70W 29N82W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 59W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N54W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N55W TO 24N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 36N37W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE ERN ATLC CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CAUSING NO ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON 000 AXNT20 KNHC 111115 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TRPCL ATLC EXTENDS FROM NEAR 15N51W TO 6N56W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO PRECEDE A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION 180 NM E OF THE AXIS...AND WITHIN 100 NM W OF THE AXIS FROM 8N-10N. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS JUST W OF JAMAICA FROM 18N79W TO 12N80W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN...AND JUST W OF THE HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES IN THE AREA. THE WAVE LIES UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING ENHANCE NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 78W-81W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALSO FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 78W-89W. IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE WHAT IS CAUSED MORE BY THE WAVE OR MORE BY THE UPPER LEVEL INFLUENCE. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDS FROM 23N95W TO 16N94W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS BEING DRAWN AROUND THE SRN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF WHICH IS LIMITED CONVECTION TO AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 95W-97W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 22N ALONG 23N9W 16N19W 10N28W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 10N28W ALONG 8N49W 9N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG A LINE 250 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 17W-32W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS CAUSING AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SRN MEXICO. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH OFF THE NW COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N84W. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN ALABAMA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR WRN GULF CENTERED OVER NRN TEXAS. DRY AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE SRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERTURBS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC AND ACROSS NRN FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE EFFECTS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO BETWEEN SARASOTA AND FORT MYERS. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH SOME STRONGER ACTIVITY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE WWD TOWARDS MEXICO AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N86W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CENTERED N OF THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER. THIS PATTERN IS CREATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THIS AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO ABOVE A TROPICAL WAVE W OF JAMAICA ALONG 79W/80W. THIS COMBINATION IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 78W-85W...FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 85W-89W...AND N OF JAMAICA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 75W-77W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF 11N ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS NRN COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N LATER IN THE WEEK ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND THE NRN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL CONCENTRATE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THESE AREAS. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS IN ELY 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS. A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE NOTES IN THE ELY FLOW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY S OF ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE BASIN LATER IN THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE WRN ATLC MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN ALABAMA WITH ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING TO 58W. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 37N56W 30N70W 29N82W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 59W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N54W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N55W TO 24N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 36N37W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE ERN ATLC CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CAUSING NO ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON