000 AXNT20 KNHC 101741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS ANALYZED FROM 14N43W TO 5N49W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL-DEFINED IN THE SATELLITE FEATURE WINDS AS WELL AS THE 1212Z ASCAT PASS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. A SECONDARY FEATURE...WHICH MAY BE AN UNDIAGNOSED WAVE...IS ALONG 38W AND HAS SEEN PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER THE LAST DAY...BUT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 72W S OF 19N FROM HISPANIOLA TO INLAND OVER COLUMBIA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THOUGH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THE SYSTEM IS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND ONLY MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AS BEING OVER CENTRAL CUBA HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED FARTHER WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 23N90W TO OVER MEXICO TO 13N93W IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EVIDENT AS A MAXIMUM IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY JUST EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS AS WELL AS MEXICAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES. THERE DOES REMAIN A FEATURE OVER CENTRAL CUBA...WHICH IS NOW DENOTED AS A TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 18N16W TO 9N24W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 6N34W TO 10N44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N47W. A SEPARATE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COLUMBIA TO COSTA RICA FROM 10N76W TO 10N83W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 5N-11N E OF 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 23N...THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND A UPPER HIGH OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS MENTIONED ABOVE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING EASTERLY TRADEWINDS 15-25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW IS SITUATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N81W WITH RIDGING COVERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 14N. WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE TROUGH OVER CUBA IS MENTIONED ABOVE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE FLOW IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD INCREASE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND...THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...POTENTIALLY GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY ON THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING ENE-WSW FROM A 1030 MB HIGH JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION AT 34N34W IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC TODAY. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT FROM THIS RIDGING EXISTS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH NE WINDS 20-30 KT FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA HAS GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS BEING INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW...IS LOCATED ALONG 31N55W TO 26N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW NEAR 27N55W TO 20N73W. ELSEWHERE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS MENTIONED ABOVE. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE TOWARD THE WEST SOME...FORCING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL SLACKEN AND THE WINDS THERE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA/MOSES 000 AXNT20 KNHC 101741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS ANALYZED FROM 14N43W TO 5N49W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL-DEFINED IN THE SATELLITE FEATURE WINDS AS WELL AS THE 1212Z ASCAT PASS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. A SECONDARY FEATURE...WHICH MAY BE AN UNDIAGNOSED WAVE...IS ALONG 38W AND HAS SEEN PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER THE LAST DAY...BUT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 72W S OF 19N FROM HISPANIOLA TO INLAND OVER COLUMBIA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THOUGH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THE SYSTEM IS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND ONLY MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AS BEING OVER CENTRAL CUBA HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED FARTHER WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 23N90W TO OVER MEXICO TO 13N93W IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EVIDENT AS A MAXIMUM IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY JUST EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS AS WELL AS MEXICAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES. THERE DOES REMAIN A FEATURE OVER CENTRAL CUBA...WHICH IS NOW DENOTED AS A TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 18N16W TO 9N24W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 6N34W TO 10N44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N47W. A SEPARATE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COLUMBIA TO COSTA RICA FROM 10N76W TO 10N83W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 5N-11N E OF 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 23N...THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND A UPPER HIGH OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS MENTIONED ABOVE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING EASTERLY TRADEWINDS 15-25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW IS SITUATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N81W WITH RIDGING COVERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 14N. WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE TROUGH OVER CUBA IS MENTIONED ABOVE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE FLOW IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD INCREASE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND...THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...POTENTIALLY GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY ON THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING ENE-WSW FROM A 1030 MB HIGH JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION AT 34N34W IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC TODAY. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT FROM THIS RIDGING EXISTS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH NE WINDS 20-30 KT FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA HAS GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS BEING INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW...IS LOCATED ALONG 31N55W TO 26N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW NEAR 27N55W TO 20N73W. ELSEWHERE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS MENTIONED ABOVE. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE TOWARD THE WEST SOME...FORCING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL SLACKEN AND THE WINDS THERE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA/MOSES