000 AXNT20 KNHC 101132 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 13N41W TO 5N46W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL-DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO CONFINED TO THE ITCZ DISCUSSED BELOW. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 71W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-73W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST CUBA IS ANALYZED FROM 25N79W TO 20N81W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS SUPPRESSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS...ALLOWING FOR ONLY SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DISCUSSION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM 19N16W TO 12N20W TO 10N25W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 8N34W 9N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N55W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-11N E OF 22W. ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 30W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR W BASIN AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 25N W OF 92W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION LIES BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA...PROVIDING SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN FLOW UP TO 15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA WILL ENTER THE SE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA WITHIN 90/120 NM W OF 78W. THE ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED OVER THE FAR NW BASIN S OF 21N W OF 83W DUE TO SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 12N W OF 74W DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE CENTRAL BASIN FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 70W-83W IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS PROVIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN N OF 14N BETWEEN 63W-73W ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 71W S OF 16N. THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EASTERLY TRADES 15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY ON THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NE CONUS SEABOARD INTO THE N ATLC OCEAN SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT STAYS N OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE EXTENDS INTO THE FAR WEST DISCUSSION AREA...NOTICED AS AN AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 28N W OF 78W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 27N54W GENERATING AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 51W-56W. OTHERWISE...THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N37W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 101132 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 13N41W TO 5N46W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL-DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO CONFINED TO THE ITCZ DISCUSSED BELOW. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 71W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-73W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST CUBA IS ANALYZED FROM 25N79W TO 20N81W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS SUPPRESSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS...ALLOWING FOR ONLY SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DISCUSSION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM 19N16W TO 12N20W TO 10N25W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 8N34W 9N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N55W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-11N E OF 22W. ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 30W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR W BASIN AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 25N W OF 92W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION LIES BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA...PROVIDING SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN FLOW UP TO 15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA WILL ENTER THE SE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA WITHIN 90/120 NM W OF 78W. THE ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED OVER THE FAR NW BASIN S OF 21N W OF 83W DUE TO SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 12N W OF 74W DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE CENTRAL BASIN FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 70W-83W IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS PROVIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN N OF 14N BETWEEN 63W-73W ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 71W S OF 16N. THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EASTERLY TRADES 15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY ON THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NE CONUS SEABOARD INTO THE N ATLC OCEAN SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT STAYS N OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE EXTENDS INTO THE FAR WEST DISCUSSION AREA...NOTICED AS AN AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 28N W OF 78W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 27N54W GENERATING AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 51W-56W. OTHERWISE...THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N37W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA