000 AXNT20 KNHC 100542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 13N41W TO 5N44W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 70W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 13N E OF 70W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST CUBA IS ANALYZED FROM 25N79W TO 18N80W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS SUPPRESSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS...LEAVING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DISCUSSION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N17W TO 10N23W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 8N30W 9N40W 6N50W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 25W-35. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 42W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR SE BASIN...AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N E OF 93W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION LIES BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW GULF AND AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA...PROVIDING SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN FLOW UP TO 15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA WILL ENTER THE SE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW BASIN W OF 83W AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA WITHIN 80 NM W OF 78W. THE ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 12N W OF 74W DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE CENTRAL BASIN FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 70W-83W IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PROVIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SATELLITE DATA AND DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER THE NE BASIN N OF 13N E OF 70W ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 70W S OF 16N. THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EASTERLY TRADES 15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOMING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY ON THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 27N54W GENERATING AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 51W-56W. OTHERWISE...THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N34W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 100542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 13N41W TO 5N44W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 70W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 13N E OF 70W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST CUBA IS ANALYZED FROM 25N79W TO 18N80W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS SUPPRESSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS...LEAVING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DISCUSSION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N17W TO 10N23W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 8N30W 9N40W 6N50W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 25W-35. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 42W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR SE BASIN...AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N E OF 93W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION LIES BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW GULF AND AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA...PROVIDING SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN FLOW UP TO 15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA WILL ENTER THE SE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW BASIN W OF 83W AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA WITHIN 80 NM W OF 78W. THE ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 12N W OF 74W DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE CENTRAL BASIN FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 70W-83W IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PROVIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SATELLITE DATA AND DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER THE NE BASIN N OF 13N E OF 70W ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 70W S OF 16N. THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EASTERLY TRADES 15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOMING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY ON THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 27N54W GENERATING AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 51W-56W. OTHERWISE...THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N34W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA