000 AXNT20 KNHC 090546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 13N31W TO 8N33W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM ALONG 14N62W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N62W MOVING NW NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 16N E OF 68W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER HAITI ANALYZED FROM 23N71W TO 17N73W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR FROM 14N16W TO 6N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 4N30W 3N40W 5N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10NE OF 24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF...CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL BASIN NEAR 28N92W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS AN AREA OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SSE WINDS UP TO 15 KT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW BASIN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N W OF 80W. THE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 68W AND 80W IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PROVIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE BASIN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N E OF 68W. THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THIS REGION. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NE CONUS SEABOARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...COVERING THE FAR W ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLC N OF 28N W OF 77W. SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 21N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES THROUGH THE N/CENTRAL ATLC TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 090546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 13N31W TO 8N33W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM ALONG 14N62W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N62W MOVING NW NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 16N E OF 68W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER HAITI ANALYZED FROM 23N71W TO 17N73W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR FROM 14N16W TO 6N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 4N30W 3N40W 5N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10NE OF 24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF...CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL BASIN NEAR 28N92W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS AN AREA OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SSE WINDS UP TO 15 KT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW BASIN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N W OF 80W. THE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 68W AND 80W IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PROVIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE BASIN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N E OF 68W. THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THIS REGION. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NE CONUS SEABOARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...COVERING THE FAR W ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLC N OF 28N W OF 77W. SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 21N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES THROUGH THE N/CENTRAL ATLC TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA