000 AXNT20 KNHC 082351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED ALONG 14N30W TO 7N33W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION AND IS PRECEDING AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ANALYZED ALONG 14N60W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N61W MOVING NW NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 55W-64W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA IS ANALYZED ALONG 23N69W 20N71W TO 17N72W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 18N-20N COVERING MOST OF HAITI. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ALONG 19N10W S INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W 7N23W TO 8N28W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 5N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 49W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 5N-12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 18W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE GULF W OF 85W AND IS CENTERED NEAR 28N92W WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ANCHORED ALONG THE E FLORIA COAST NEAR MELBOURNE. AT THE SURFACE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ALONG 27N84W 26N87W TO 23N89W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE E GULF E OF 89W FROM CUBA TO THE N GULF COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED BY THE UPPER LOW N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA/SE TEXAS BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND HOUSTON TEXAS. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG 28N SUN AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL PANAMA TO HAITI. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 74W-86W INCLUDING THE SW TIP OF HAITI AND PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. THE CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HAITI AND THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... SEE ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-70W. THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WILL REACH ALONG 55W ON MON AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE FAR W TROPICAL ATLC AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS N OF VERO BEACH AND FROM OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS S OF 25N TO OVER CUBA W OF 77W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES THROUGH THE N/CENTRAL ATLC AND 32N52W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MODERATELY DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE E ATLC FROM 20N-31N E OF 22W. AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WED. THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE W ATLC S OF 24N THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW 000 AXNT20 KNHC 082351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED ALONG 14N30W TO 7N33W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION AND IS PRECEDING AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ANALYZED ALONG 14N60W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N61W MOVING NW NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 55W-64W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA IS ANALYZED ALONG 23N69W 20N71W TO 17N72W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 18N-20N COVERING MOST OF HAITI. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ALONG 19N10W S INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W 7N23W TO 8N28W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 5N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 49W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 5N-12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 18W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE GULF W OF 85W AND IS CENTERED NEAR 28N92W WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ANCHORED ALONG THE E FLORIA COAST NEAR MELBOURNE. AT THE SURFACE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ALONG 27N84W 26N87W TO 23N89W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE E GULF E OF 89W FROM CUBA TO THE N GULF COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED BY THE UPPER LOW N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA/SE TEXAS BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND HOUSTON TEXAS. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG 28N SUN AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL PANAMA TO HAITI. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 74W-86W INCLUDING THE SW TIP OF HAITI AND PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. THE CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HAITI AND THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... SEE ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-70W. THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WILL REACH ALONG 55W ON MON AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE FAR W TROPICAL ATLC AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS N OF VERO BEACH AND FROM OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS S OF 25N TO OVER CUBA W OF 77W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES THROUGH THE N/CENTRAL ATLC AND 32N52W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MODERATELY DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE E ATLC FROM 20N-31N E OF 22W. AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WED. THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE W ATLC S OF 24N THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW