000 AXNT20 KNHC 070541 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N42W 8N43W 4N44W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N57W 16N59W 13N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N58W TO 21N65W TO 14N67W. A TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 86W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N...CURVING TO 23N7W 20N13W 12N19W 10N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N24W TO 8N33W 5N49W...REACHING THE BORDER OF NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA AND NORTHEASTERN SURINAME. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST OF 86W...ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND CUBA AND BEYOND. RAINSHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS UNDER THE LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO BETWEEN 98W AND 104W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...FROM 140 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE BAHAMAS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N58W...REACHES 14N67W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N. A TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 82W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...FROM A POSITION THAT IS 140 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N ACROSS CUBA TO 26N...SPANNING THE BAHAMAS...BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N65W 9N68W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA ALONG 65W FROM THE COAST SOUTHWARD ARE IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...FROM A POSITION THAT IS 140 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE BAHAMAS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 25N58W 21N65W...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N48W 27N57W 22N67W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 29N20W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N27W TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 170 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N28W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 75W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N48W TO BERMUDA...32N72W... AND 31N80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 070541 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N42W 8N43W 4N44W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N57W 16N59W 13N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N58W TO 21N65W TO 14N67W. A TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 86W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N...CURVING TO 23N7W 20N13W 12N19W 10N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N24W TO 8N33W 5N49W...REACHING THE BORDER OF NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA AND NORTHEASTERN SURINAME. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST OF 86W...ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND CUBA AND BEYOND. RAINSHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS UNDER THE LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO BETWEEN 98W AND 104W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...FROM 140 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE BAHAMAS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N58W...REACHES 14N67W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N. A TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 82W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...FROM A POSITION THAT IS 140 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N ACROSS CUBA TO 26N...SPANNING THE BAHAMAS...BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N65W 9N68W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA ALONG 65W FROM THE COAST SOUTHWARD ARE IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...FROM A POSITION THAT IS 140 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE BAHAMAS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 25N58W 21N65W...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N48W 27N57W 22N67W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 29N20W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N27W TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 170 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N28W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 75W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N48W TO BERMUDA...32N72W... AND 31N80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT