000 AXNT20 KNHC 061734 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS FOUND THIS MORNING...EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 11N39W TO 4N42W MOVING W AT ABOUT 12 KT. A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDS THIS WAVE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ DISCUSSED BELOW. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N53W TO 12N57W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE IS PRECEDING A BROAD AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THIS REGION...LEAVING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 52W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N86W TO 17N90W MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF OF MEXICO BASINS. THE WAVE LIES UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 27N E OF 88W AS WELL AS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER AFRICA AND ENTERS THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH GUINEA-BISSAU FROM 12N16W TO 10N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS STARTS FROM 10N19W CONTINUING WSW ALONG 10N25W 9N30W 7N40W RESUMING WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N42W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130/160 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO COVER THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED NEAR 26N90W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS AN AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS N OF 24N W OF 91W. THE ACTIVITY BECOMES FURTHER ENHANCED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN E OF 89W. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THIS AREA...ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO NOTICED OVER THE SE GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN BASINS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT W WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS TO START MOVING INTO THE SE GULF DURING THE TIME PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED NEAR 17N80W. THIS FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT OVER THE FAR NW BASIN...BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WEST AND NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 16N W OF 70W...DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW BASIN...AND A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN. THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE IN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS REGISTERED RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE 6 AND 7 INCHES IN THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FOUND OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 12N W OF 75W...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ANALYZED FROM 14N61W TO 10N64W PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO THE FAR SE BASIN S OF 15N E OF 65W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO THE SUBSIDENCE GENERATED BY THE UPPER HIGH. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ANALYZED FROM 28N78W TO 23N78W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 72W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE WEST ATLC W OF 70W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NNW BRINGING CONVECTION TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 41N33W. THIS BROAD SYSTEM IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC. AN UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD RIDGE SPINNING NEAR 27N55W SUPPORTING AN AREA OF WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 50W-58W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 061734 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS FOUND THIS MORNING...EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 11N39W TO 4N42W MOVING W AT ABOUT 12 KT. A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDS THIS WAVE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ DISCUSSED BELOW. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N53W TO 12N57W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE IS PRECEDING A BROAD AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THIS REGION...LEAVING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 52W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N86W TO 17N90W MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF OF MEXICO BASINS. THE WAVE LIES UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 27N E OF 88W AS WELL AS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER AFRICA AND ENTERS THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH GUINEA-BISSAU FROM 12N16W TO 10N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS STARTS FROM 10N19W CONTINUING WSW ALONG 10N25W 9N30W 7N40W RESUMING WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N42W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130/160 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO COVER THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED NEAR 26N90W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS AN AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS N OF 24N W OF 91W. THE ACTIVITY BECOMES FURTHER ENHANCED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN E OF 89W. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THIS AREA...ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO NOTICED OVER THE SE GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN BASINS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT W WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS TO START MOVING INTO THE SE GULF DURING THE TIME PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED NEAR 17N80W. THIS FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT OVER THE FAR NW BASIN...BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WEST AND NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 16N W OF 70W...DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW BASIN...AND A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN. THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE IN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS REGISTERED RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE 6 AND 7 INCHES IN THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FOUND OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 12N W OF 75W...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ANALYZED FROM 14N61W TO 10N64W PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO THE FAR SE BASIN S OF 15N E OF 65W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO THE SUBSIDENCE GENERATED BY THE UPPER HIGH. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ANALYZED FROM 28N78W TO 23N78W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 72W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE WEST ATLC W OF 70W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NNW BRINGING CONVECTION TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 41N33W. THIS BROAD SYSTEM IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC. AN UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD RIDGE SPINNING NEAR 27N55W SUPPORTING AN AREA OF WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 50W-58W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA