000 AXNT20 KNHC 061129 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N49W 15N52W 10N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM 12N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 9N59W 6N60W IN NORTHERN GUYANA. THE ONLY SCATTEROMETER WINDS FROM 05/1200 UTC APPEARED TO PLACE THE TROUGH CLOSER TO THIS POSITION EVEN THOUGH THOSE WINDS ARE IN THE PAST. IT IS NOT EASY TO SEE ANY MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY. WE WILL HOPE FOR MORE AND/OR CLEARER DATA FOR THE NEXT MAP. NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE 20N49W 10N53W TROPICAL WAVE MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM 23N84W IN WESTERN CUBA TO 18N87W TO 15N87W IN CENTRAL HONDURAS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN NORTHERN COASTAL JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND SURROUNDING AND REACHING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 23N...CURVING TO 23N10W 20N14W 8N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N20W TO 6N30W 3N36W...STOPPING AT 3N45W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 34W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 11N BETWEEN 21W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD ANDROS ISLAND AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE MAY BE REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 26N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 108W AND 110W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N77W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO 22N96W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N53W AND REACHES 15N64W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM 23N84W IN WESTERN CUBA TO 18N87W TO 15N87W IN CENTRAL HONDURAS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN NORTHERN COASTAL JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND SURROUNDING AND REACHING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N75W IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...TO 11N80W BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAVE RANGED FROM 6.92 INCHES AT THE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LAS AMERICAS TO 7.41 INCHES IN SANTO DOMINGO...FROM 6.75 INCHES IN YAMASA TO 7.2 INCHES IN POLO BARAHONA...AND FROM 7.75 INCHES IN BOTANICO GARDEN TO 8.15 INCHES IN VICTORIA. A TROPICAL WAVE BEGAN MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON 02 JULY. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE SEPARATED FROM THE REST OF THE WAVE AND IT CONTINUED ON ITS OWN NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY FROM HISPANIOLA TOWARD ITS PRESENT POSITION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUED ON ITS OWN TRAJECTORY TO ITS PRESENT LOCATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 76W/77W FROM 22N TO 28N...ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TOP OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND POSSIBLY REACHING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N49W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 27N53W TO 15N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 33N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N56W TO 31N69W TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 061129 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N49W 15N52W 10N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM 12N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 9N59W 6N60W IN NORTHERN GUYANA. THE ONLY SCATTEROMETER WINDS FROM 05/1200 UTC APPEARED TO PLACE THE TROUGH CLOSER TO THIS POSITION EVEN THOUGH THOSE WINDS ARE IN THE PAST. IT IS NOT EASY TO SEE ANY MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY. WE WILL HOPE FOR MORE AND/OR CLEARER DATA FOR THE NEXT MAP. NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE 20N49W 10N53W TROPICAL WAVE MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM 23N84W IN WESTERN CUBA TO 18N87W TO 15N87W IN CENTRAL HONDURAS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN NORTHERN COASTAL JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND SURROUNDING AND REACHING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 23N...CURVING TO 23N10W 20N14W 8N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N20W TO 6N30W 3N36W...STOPPING AT 3N45W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 34W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 11N BETWEEN 21W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD ANDROS ISLAND AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE MAY BE REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 26N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 108W AND 110W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N77W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO 22N96W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N53W AND REACHES 15N64W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM 23N84W IN WESTERN CUBA TO 18N87W TO 15N87W IN CENTRAL HONDURAS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN NORTHERN COASTAL JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND SURROUNDING AND REACHING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N75W IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...TO 11N80W BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAVE RANGED FROM 6.92 INCHES AT THE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LAS AMERICAS TO 7.41 INCHES IN SANTO DOMINGO...FROM 6.75 INCHES IN YAMASA TO 7.2 INCHES IN POLO BARAHONA...AND FROM 7.75 INCHES IN BOTANICO GARDEN TO 8.15 INCHES IN VICTORIA. A TROPICAL WAVE BEGAN MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON 02 JULY. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE SEPARATED FROM THE REST OF THE WAVE AND IT CONTINUED ON ITS OWN NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY FROM HISPANIOLA TOWARD ITS PRESENT POSITION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUED ON ITS OWN TRAJECTORY TO ITS PRESENT LOCATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 76W/77W FROM 22N TO 28N...ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TOP OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND POSSIBLY REACHING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N49W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 27N53W TO 15N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 33N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N56W TO 31N69W TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT