000 AXNT20 KNHC 051733 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 20N42W TO 11N47W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE IS PRECEDING A BROAD AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS LIMITED DUE TO A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE N CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE WAVE LIES UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATED A SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING EAST OF THE CURRENT WAVE AXIS...AND THEREFORE...THE WAVE IS NOW REANALYZED FROM 22N81W TO 15N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER AFRICA AND ENTERS THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH SENEGAL FROM 14N17W TO 10N22W. THE ITCZ AXIS STARTS FROM 10N22W CONTINUING WSW ALONG 7N30W 6N38W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100/130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED NEAR 26N90W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FORM 27N88W TO 24N88W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50/80 E OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N E OF 85W...ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE SE GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN BASINS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT W WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS TO START MOVING INTO THE SE GULF DURING THE TIME PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED NEAR 16N75W. THIS FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT OVER THE NW BASIN BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...AT SURFACE... SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 15N W OF 68W...DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW BASIN...AND A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FOUND OVER THE FAR SW BASIN WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO THE SUBSIDENCE GENERATED BY THE UPPER HIGH. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED 80 NM SE OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO THE FAR SE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...ANALYZED FROM 27N74W TO 21N77W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N BETWEEN 68W-77W. THE CONVECTION TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST ATLC. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 27N64W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND... AT THE SAME TIME SHEARING IT TO THE NE. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 35N37W. THIS BROAD SYSTEM IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD RIDGE SPINNING NEAR 25N50W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 26N50W TO 24N52W WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 051733 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 20N42W TO 11N47W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE IS PRECEDING A BROAD AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS LIMITED DUE TO A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE N CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE WAVE LIES UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATED A SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING EAST OF THE CURRENT WAVE AXIS...AND THEREFORE...THE WAVE IS NOW REANALYZED FROM 22N81W TO 15N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER AFRICA AND ENTERS THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH SENEGAL FROM 14N17W TO 10N22W. THE ITCZ AXIS STARTS FROM 10N22W CONTINUING WSW ALONG 7N30W 6N38W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100/130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED NEAR 26N90W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FORM 27N88W TO 24N88W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50/80 E OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N E OF 85W...ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE SE GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN BASINS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT W WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS TO START MOVING INTO THE SE GULF DURING THE TIME PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED NEAR 16N75W. THIS FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT OVER THE NW BASIN BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...AT SURFACE... SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 15N W OF 68W...DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW BASIN...AND A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FOUND OVER THE FAR SW BASIN WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO THE SUBSIDENCE GENERATED BY THE UPPER HIGH. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED 80 NM SE OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO THE FAR SE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...ANALYZED FROM 27N74W TO 21N77W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N BETWEEN 68W-77W. THE CONVECTION TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST ATLC. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 27N64W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND... AT THE SAME TIME SHEARING IT TO THE NE. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 35N37W. THIS BROAD SYSTEM IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD RIDGE SPINNING NEAR 25N50W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 26N50W TO 24N52W WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA