000 AXNT20 KNHC 042345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N37W TO 9N41W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND AS A BROAD INVERTED V STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS PRECEDING A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND THE TOP END OF THE WAVE FORMING A DRY SLOT ALONG THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 15N. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM 21N81W TO 13N81W MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE N CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE WAVE LIES UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...SIMILAR CONVECTION COVERS A GREAT PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER AFRICA AND ENTERS THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH GUINEA FROM 10N14W TO 6N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS STARTS FROM 6N21W CONTINUING W ALONG 5N30W 8N40W 9N50W 7N58W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100/130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 37W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 21W TO THE COAST OF GUINEA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING CENTERED NEAR 24N88W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FORM 27N91W TO 24N91W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50/80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. MOIST DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SE BASIN IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 87W. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT W WITH LIMITED CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 14N W OF 68W...DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW BASIN...AND A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ENHANCED BY SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WRN BASIN. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WAVE SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE. MUCH OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 68W IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY SOME DRY AIR ALOFT. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE WNW BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR WRN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 30N75W KEEPING THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...ANALYZED FROM 25N72W TO 20N76W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N BETWEEN 68W-78W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TO THE NE OF THE CONVECTION AREA NEAR 29N68W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND AT THE SAME TIME EXPANDING IT TO THE NE. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 38N43W. THIS BROAD SYSTEM IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD RIDGE SPINNING NEAR 23N50W WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 042345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N37W TO 9N41W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND AS A BROAD INVERTED V STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS PRECEDING A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND THE TOP END OF THE WAVE FORMING A DRY SLOT ALONG THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 15N. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM 21N81W TO 13N81W MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE N CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE WAVE LIES UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...SIMILAR CONVECTION COVERS A GREAT PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER AFRICA AND ENTERS THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH GUINEA FROM 10N14W TO 6N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS STARTS FROM 6N21W CONTINUING W ALONG 5N30W 8N40W 9N50W 7N58W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100/130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 37W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 21W TO THE COAST OF GUINEA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING CENTERED NEAR 24N88W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FORM 27N91W TO 24N91W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50/80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. MOIST DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SE BASIN IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 87W. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT W WITH LIMITED CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 14N W OF 68W...DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW BASIN...AND A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ENHANCED BY SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WRN BASIN. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WAVE SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE. MUCH OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 68W IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY SOME DRY AIR ALOFT. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE WNW BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR WRN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 30N75W KEEPING THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...ANALYZED FROM 25N72W TO 20N76W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N BETWEEN 68W-78W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TO THE NE OF THE CONVECTION AREA NEAR 29N68W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND AT THE SAME TIME EXPANDING IT TO THE NE. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 38N43W. THIS BROAD SYSTEM IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD RIDGE SPINNING NEAR 23N50W WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA