000 AXNT20 KNHC 040533 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N34W 15N37W 11N38W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS DISCERNIBLE SOLELY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ENDING AROUND 03/1700 UTC SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 14N22W. THAT SAME CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 15N26W IN CURRENT INFRARED IMAGERY. CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W INCLUDING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA TO 15N80W TO 11N81W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH HAS COVERED THIS SAME AREA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 15N...CURVING TO 18N4W 25N6W 19N15W 8N15W AND 5N18W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 11N27W 11N35W...10N40W 8N53W INTO NORTHWESTERN SURINAME NEAR 5N57W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY IN AFRICA AND BARELY INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 9W AND 14W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N63W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N71W...CONTINUING ACROSS FLORIDA JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO A 24N87W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA...FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 92W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ALONG THE BELIZE COAST TOWARD ITS BORDER WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA COAST AND 84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N71W TO 28N73W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SWIRLING NEAR THE 31N71W CYCLONIC CENTER FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 87W/88W FROM 24N TO 27N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 24N. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W...AND FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA TO 15N80W TO 11N81W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH HAS COVERED THIS SAME AREA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ALONG THE COAST FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC NEAR 31N71W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 60W... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N51W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST A FEW OTHER CYCLONIC CENTERS ALSO ARE CAUGHT UP IN THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 35N17W TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N29W...CONTINUING TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N49W...TO BERMUDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 040533 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N34W 15N37W 11N38W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS DISCERNIBLE SOLELY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ENDING AROUND 03/1700 UTC SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 14N22W. THAT SAME CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 15N26W IN CURRENT INFRARED IMAGERY. CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W INCLUDING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA TO 15N80W TO 11N81W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH HAS COVERED THIS SAME AREA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 15N...CURVING TO 18N4W 25N6W 19N15W 8N15W AND 5N18W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 11N27W 11N35W...10N40W 8N53W INTO NORTHWESTERN SURINAME NEAR 5N57W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY IN AFRICA AND BARELY INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 9W AND 14W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N63W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N71W...CONTINUING ACROSS FLORIDA JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO A 24N87W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA...FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 92W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ALONG THE BELIZE COAST TOWARD ITS BORDER WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA COAST AND 84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N71W TO 28N73W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SWIRLING NEAR THE 31N71W CYCLONIC CENTER FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 87W/88W FROM 24N TO 27N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 24N. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W...AND FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA TO 15N80W TO 11N81W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH HAS COVERED THIS SAME AREA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ALONG THE COAST FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC NEAR 31N71W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 60W... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N51W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST A FEW OTHER CYCLONIC CENTERS ALSO ARE CAUGHT UP IN THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 35N17W TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N29W...CONTINUING TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N49W...TO BERMUDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT