000 AXNT20 KNHC 031745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 20N29W TO 9N36W MOVING W 15-20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLASSIC INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO IS AHEAD OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND THE TOP END OF THE WAVE FORMING A DRY SLOT ALONG THE SRN HALF. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 34W-38W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W FROM 9N-17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-79W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR SW BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 21N95W TO 14N96W. THE WAVE IS SPAWNING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 95W-98W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING W IN THE E PACIFIC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 19N ALONG 24N5W 14N13W 11N18W 11N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N27W ALONG 9N37W 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 17W-22W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 38W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N92W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH W OF FLORIDA ALONG 86W FROM 25N-29N. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 83W-86W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 83W-89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND S OF LOUISIANA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 88W-93W. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR SW BAY OF CAMPECHE IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W WITH VERY LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT. THE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER ERN TEXAS AND WRN LOUISIANA. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NE GULF TO CONTINUE DRIFTING W WITH LIKELY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BREAK OFF AND FORM A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SURFACE TROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BESIDES THE FAR NW CORNER. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 78W-84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 84W-88W...AS WELL AS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 79W-84W DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NEAR 11N79W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W CAUSING AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-79W. ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS N OF THE MONA PASSAGE SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 61W-68W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. A CLUSTER IS ALSO S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 70W-72W. FINALLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 62W-66W. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES INTO THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W CONTINUING TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH...CUT OFF PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IS ACROSS TURKS AND CAICOS FROM 24N70W TO 21N73W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS UNDER A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 25N72W TO 18N69W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 62W-28W...AND FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 67W-72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 62W-68W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS. A 1027 MB HIGH IS NEAR 35N29W...AND A 1020 MB HIGH IS NEAR 35N47W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 14N56W TO NEAR 32N61W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 26N49W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW FROM NEAR 35N48W TO 30N51W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 47W-53W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON 000 AXNT20 KNHC 031745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 20N29W TO 9N36W MOVING W 15-20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLASSIC INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO IS AHEAD OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND THE TOP END OF THE WAVE FORMING A DRY SLOT ALONG THE SRN HALF. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 34W-38W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W FROM 9N-17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-79W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR SW BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 21N95W TO 14N96W. THE WAVE IS SPAWNING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 95W-98W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING W IN THE E PACIFIC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 19N ALONG 24N5W 14N13W 11N18W 11N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N27W ALONG 9N37W 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 17W-22W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 38W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N92W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH W OF FLORIDA ALONG 86W FROM 25N-29N. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 83W-86W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 83W-89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND S OF LOUISIANA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 88W-93W. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR SW BAY OF CAMPECHE IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W WITH VERY LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT. THE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER ERN TEXAS AND WRN LOUISIANA. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NE GULF TO CONTINUE DRIFTING W WITH LIKELY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BREAK OFF AND FORM A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SURFACE TROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BESIDES THE FAR NW CORNER. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 78W-84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 84W-88W...AS WELL AS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 79W-84W DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NEAR 11N79W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W CAUSING AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-79W. ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS N OF THE MONA PASSAGE SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 61W-68W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. A CLUSTER IS ALSO S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 70W-72W. FINALLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 62W-66W. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES INTO THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W CONTINUING TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH...CUT OFF PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IS ACROSS TURKS AND CAICOS FROM 24N70W TO 21N73W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS UNDER A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 25N72W TO 18N69W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 62W-28W...AND FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 67W-72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 62W-68W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS. A 1027 MB HIGH IS NEAR 35N29W...AND A 1020 MB HIGH IS NEAR 35N47W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 14N56W TO NEAR 32N61W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 26N49W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW FROM NEAR 35N48W TO 30N51W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 47W-53W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON