000 AXNT20 KNHC 030003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM 20N23W TO 10N29W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND AS A BROAD CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS PRECEDING A MOISTURE SURGE COMING OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS FOUND WITHIN 70 NM OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM AROUND 9N TO 17N. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED FROM 20N68W TO 11N73W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT AND TRACK NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER... SIMILAR CONVECTION COVERS A GREAT PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 20N W OF 67W. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ANALYZED FROM 20N92W TO 16N93W MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 20N E OF 95W INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST FROM 19N16W TO 12N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS STARTS FROM 8N31W CONTINUING W ALONG 7N40W 8N50W 10N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD WITH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW ROTATING N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N87W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WEST ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N81W TO 25N83W. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WEST ATLC...LEAVING ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE FAR SW COAST OF FLORIDA S OF 26N. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH STRONG CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER PROVIDED BY A 1018 MB SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE FAR NW BASIN NEAR 28N93W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO BE GREATLY DISRUPTED BY A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN...AS WELL AS THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW BASIN FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA. FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THE WAVE SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER A GREAT PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 20N W OF 67W. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE SAME AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WEST ATLC INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 30N76W TO 26N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS BRINGING SIMILAR CONVECTION INTO THE ATLC S OF 23N BETWEEN 60W-72W. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL SPLIT AND TRACK NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB AND 1026 MB HIGHS NEAR 36N49W AND 35N32W RESPECTIVELY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 030003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM 20N23W TO 10N29W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND AS A BROAD CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS PRECEDING A MOISTURE SURGE COMING OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS FOUND WITHIN 70 NM OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM AROUND 9N TO 17N. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED FROM 20N68W TO 11N73W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT AND TRACK NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER... SIMILAR CONVECTION COVERS A GREAT PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 20N W OF 67W. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ANALYZED FROM 20N92W TO 16N93W MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 20N E OF 95W INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST FROM 19N16W TO 12N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS STARTS FROM 8N31W CONTINUING W ALONG 7N40W 8N50W 10N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD WITH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW ROTATING N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N87W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WEST ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N81W TO 25N83W. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WEST ATLC...LEAVING ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE FAR SW COAST OF FLORIDA S OF 26N. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH STRONG CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER PROVIDED BY A 1018 MB SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE FAR NW BASIN NEAR 28N93W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO BE GREATLY DISRUPTED BY A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN...AS WELL AS THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW BASIN FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA. FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THE WAVE SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER A GREAT PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 20N W OF 67W. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE SAME AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WEST ATLC INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 30N76W TO 26N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS BRINGING SIMILAR CONVECTION INTO THE ATLC S OF 23N BETWEEN 60W-72W. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL SPLIT AND TRACK NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB AND 1026 MB HIGHS NEAR 36N49W AND 35N32W RESPECTIVELY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA