000 AXNT20 KNHC 021741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N22W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 15N25W TO 10N26W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DISCERNIBLE SOLELY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 71W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO IS OCCURRING UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THIS WAVE WAS RE-POSITIONED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN BELIZE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 25N TO 23N9W 20N11W AND 20N16W TO 18N19W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 8N27W AND IT CONTINUES TO 7N40W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N20W 8N26W 8N31W 7N40W 7N45W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO 26N93W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENDS NEAR 31N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N71W TO 27N76W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N76W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N79W...CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N86W IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W 29N75W 25N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 92W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN MEXICO ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM 17N TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO THE EAST OF 100W...AND ALSO POSSIBLY TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 100W. FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N59W TO 28N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W... TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS HOVERING ON TOP OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...CONTINUING TOWARD CENTRAL PANAMA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE WEST OF 72W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...SPIRALING NORTHWARD TO 30N66W. A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 71W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N9W TO 21N24W TO 15N48W 24N70W BEYOND 32N67W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 021741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N22W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 15N25W TO 10N26W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DISCERNIBLE SOLELY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 71W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO IS OCCURRING UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THIS WAVE WAS RE-POSITIONED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN BELIZE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 25N TO 23N9W 20N11W AND 20N16W TO 18N19W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 8N27W AND IT CONTINUES TO 7N40W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N20W 8N26W 8N31W 7N40W 7N45W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO 26N93W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENDS NEAR 31N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N71W TO 27N76W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N76W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N79W...CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N86W IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W 29N75W 25N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 92W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN MEXICO ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM 17N TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO THE EAST OF 100W...AND ALSO POSSIBLY TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 100W. FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N59W TO 28N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W... TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS HOVERING ON TOP OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...CONTINUING TOWARD CENTRAL PANAMA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE WEST OF 72W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...SPIRALING NORTHWARD TO 30N66W. A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 71W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N9W TO 21N24W TO 15N48W 24N70W BEYOND 32N67W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT