000 AXNT20 KNHC 021051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA IS ANALYZED FROM 19N20W TO 11N24W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND AS A BROAD CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS PRECEDING A MOISTURE SURGE AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 71W/72W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE HAS SPUN OFF A SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 66W-69W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N64W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TO 20N66W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED FROM 22N86W TO 16N89W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 19N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM 24N10W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 8N25W TO 7N29W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 7N38W 4N48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 36W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 15N W OF 8W...FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 16W-23W...WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 23W-36W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 52W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED INLAND OVER MEXICO GIVING THE GULF W OF 92W N FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM NE MEXICO NEAR LAGUNA MADRE TO S MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND INTO THE E GULF TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT 02/0900 UTC THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE W ATLC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 25N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 28N E OF 85W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT 02/0900 UTC A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N90W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE S AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE N GULF THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GUATEMALA GIVING THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA NEAR 19N75W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO NEAR 12N77W. THESE UPPER TROUGHS ARE INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THEM ALONG 83W/84W AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM TRINIDAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE SW ATLC. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO ACROSS NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 16N BETWEEN 76W-85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES... VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. NW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SUN AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EARLY TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS SE CONUS INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 73W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 32N72W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 27N76W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 75W-80W INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREAS OF S FLORIDA S OF VERO BEACH INCLUDING THE NORTHERNMOST BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE WHICH WAS SPUN OFF FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE AND EXTENDS FROM 24N69W TO 21N71W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N TO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 61W-74W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS BECOMING ELONGATED SE/NW AND ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 28N53W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 26N53W TO 32N57W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N47W EXTENDING AN AXIS SW ALONG 28N65W INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGHS AND GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE W ATLC FRONTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE NW THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE BAHAMA CHANNEL SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND E TO W ALONG 32N MON AND SHIFT S TO ALONG 31N TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW 000 AXNT20 KNHC 021051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA IS ANALYZED FROM 19N20W TO 11N24W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND AS A BROAD CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS PRECEDING A MOISTURE SURGE AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 71W/72W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE HAS SPUN OFF A SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 66W-69W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N64W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TO 20N66W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED FROM 22N86W TO 16N89W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 19N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM 24N10W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 8N25W TO 7N29W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 7N38W 4N48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 36W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 15N W OF 8W...FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 16W-23W...WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 23W-36W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 52W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED INLAND OVER MEXICO GIVING THE GULF W OF 92W N FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM NE MEXICO NEAR LAGUNA MADRE TO S MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND INTO THE E GULF TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT 02/0900 UTC THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE W ATLC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 25N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 28N E OF 85W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT 02/0900 UTC A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N90W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE S AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE N GULF THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GUATEMALA GIVING THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA NEAR 19N75W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO NEAR 12N77W. THESE UPPER TROUGHS ARE INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THEM ALONG 83W/84W AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM TRINIDAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE SW ATLC. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO ACROSS NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 16N BETWEEN 76W-85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES... VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. NW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SUN AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EARLY TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS SE CONUS INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 73W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 32N72W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 27N76W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 75W-80W INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREAS OF S FLORIDA S OF VERO BEACH INCLUDING THE NORTHERNMOST BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE WHICH WAS SPUN OFF FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE AND EXTENDS FROM 24N69W TO 21N71W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N TO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 61W-74W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS BECOMING ELONGATED SE/NW AND ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 28N53W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 26N53W TO 32N57W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N47W EXTENDING AN AXIS SW ALONG 28N65W INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGHS AND GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE W ATLC FRONTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE NW THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE BAHAMA CHANNEL SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND E TO W ALONG 32N MON AND SHIFT S TO ALONG 31N TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW