000 AXNT20 KNHC 020537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA IS ANALYZED FROM 19N19W TO 11N22W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND AS A BROAD CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS PRECEDING A MOISTURE SURGE AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 70W/71W S OF 19N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 63W AND THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED FROM 22N83W TO 16N87W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS FORECASTED TO BECOME A LOW WHEN IT ENTERS THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 17N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM 24N10W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 9N23W TO 8N28W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 7N38W TO SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N E OF 36W TO JUST INLAND OVER SW AFRICA AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 46W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED INLAND OVER MEXICO GIVING THE GULF W OF 90W N FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM S TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TO MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AT 02/0300 UTC THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE W ATLC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI INTO THE GULF OVER FLORIDA BAY JUST N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 24N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 28N E OF 87W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT 02/0300 UTC A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE N GULF WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N88W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE S AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE N GULF THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST S OF E CUBA NEAR 19N76W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO NEAR 13N78W. THESE UPPER TROUGHS ARE INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THEM ALONG 81W/82W AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N TO INLAND OVER HAITI AND CUBA BETWEEN 72W-81W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO ACROSS NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON AXIS. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT MORNING. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN LATE SAT WHEN IT WILL TAKE ON A MORE STRONGLY TILTED SW TO NE ORIENTATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 74W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 32N72W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 27N76W ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 28N TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INCLUDING THE NORTHERNMOST BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N TO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 62W-73W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 27N54W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N53W TO 29N57W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N47W EXTENDING AN AXIS SW ALONG 27N65W S OF THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO AND GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 31N SAT THROUGH LATE SUN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DISSIPATES THEN SLIDE TO E OF 77W BY TUE AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NW ATLC ALONG 28N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW 000 AXNT20 KNHC 020537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA IS ANALYZED FROM 19N19W TO 11N22W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND AS A BROAD CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS PRECEDING A MOISTURE SURGE AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 70W/71W S OF 19N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 63W AND THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED FROM 22N83W TO 16N87W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS FORECASTED TO BECOME A LOW WHEN IT ENTERS THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 17N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM 24N10W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 9N23W TO 8N28W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 7N38W TO SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N E OF 36W TO JUST INLAND OVER SW AFRICA AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 46W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED INLAND OVER MEXICO GIVING THE GULF W OF 90W N FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM S TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TO MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AT 02/0300 UTC THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE W ATLC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI INTO THE GULF OVER FLORIDA BAY JUST N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 24N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 28N E OF 87W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT 02/0300 UTC A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE N GULF WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N88W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE S AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE N GULF THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST S OF E CUBA NEAR 19N76W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO NEAR 13N78W. THESE UPPER TROUGHS ARE INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THEM ALONG 81W/82W AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N TO INLAND OVER HAITI AND CUBA BETWEEN 72W-81W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO ACROSS NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON AXIS. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT MORNING. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN LATE SAT WHEN IT WILL TAKE ON A MORE STRONGLY TILTED SW TO NE ORIENTATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 74W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 32N72W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 27N76W ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 28N TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INCLUDING THE NORTHERNMOST BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N TO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 62W-73W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 27N54W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N53W TO 29N57W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N47W EXTENDING AN AXIS SW ALONG 27N65W S OF THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO AND GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 31N SAT THROUGH LATE SUN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DISSIPATES THEN SLIDE TO E OF 77W BY TUE AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NW ATLC ALONG 28N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW