000 AXNT20 KNHC 020001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 18N67W TO 10N68W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MOISTURE SURGE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED A MARKED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 22N BETWEEN 62W-73W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 21N85W TO 14N86W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF 80W S OF 20N. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC 24 HOURS AGO. THE WAVE AXIS IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM 20N18W TO 10N20W. THIS WAVE PRECEDES A MOISTURE SURGE STILL OVER WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA S OF 14N...ALSO MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH DISCUSSION. ...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA...ENTERING THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 10N20W TO 7N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 6N30W TO 4N40W INTO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100/150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 34W AND W OF 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DOWN TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE WEST ATLC INTO THE GULF ALONG A 1013 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W TO 28N87W. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...LEAVING A WEAK AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IS INTRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO S OF 26N W OF 96W ASSOCIATED TO THE REMNANT BANDS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ARLENE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS UNDER SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NW BASINS...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW BASIN. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE TROPICAL WAVES...SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS NOT LIMITED TO INLAND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ONLY REGION UNDER FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 16N BETWEEN 74W-81W. WITHIN THIS AREA...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING RIGHT OVER JAMAICA. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS WRAPPED UP IN DRY AIR ALOFT HINDERING CONVECTION WITHIN AND AROUND THE UPPER LOW. TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW ATLC INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N75W...ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 27N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SPREADING SIMILAR CONVECTION INTO THE ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES S OF 22N BETWEEN 63W-72W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N42W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 28N55W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 020001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 18N67W TO 10N68W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MOISTURE SURGE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED A MARKED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 22N BETWEEN 62W-73W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 21N85W TO 14N86W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF 80W S OF 20N. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC 24 HOURS AGO. THE WAVE AXIS IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM 20N18W TO 10N20W. THIS WAVE PRECEDES A MOISTURE SURGE STILL OVER WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA S OF 14N...ALSO MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH DISCUSSION. ...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA...ENTERING THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 10N20W TO 7N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 6N30W TO 4N40W INTO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100/150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 34W AND W OF 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DOWN TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE WEST ATLC INTO THE GULF ALONG A 1013 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W TO 28N87W. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...LEAVING A WEAK AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IS INTRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO S OF 26N W OF 96W ASSOCIATED TO THE REMNANT BANDS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM ARLENE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS UNDER SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NW BASINS...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW BASIN. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE TROPICAL WAVES...SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS NOT LIMITED TO INLAND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ONLY REGION UNDER FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 16N BETWEEN 74W-81W. WITHIN THIS AREA...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING RIGHT OVER JAMAICA. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS WRAPPED UP IN DRY AIR ALOFT HINDERING CONVECTION WITHIN AND AROUND THE UPPER LOW. TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW ATLC INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N75W...ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 27N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SPREADING SIMILAR CONVECTION INTO THE ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES S OF 22N BETWEEN 63W-72W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N42W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 28N55W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA