000 AXNT20 KNHC 011739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N/WESTERN CUBA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS RELATED TO THE JAMAICA CYCLONIC CENTER. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED JUST TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 24N TO 20N17W TO 10N21W AND 7N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N30W TO 6N40W TO 8N51W...INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 7N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N TO THE EAST OF 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF ARLENE IS A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N103W IN WEST CENTRAL MEXICO. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR MONTERREY MEXICO FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/1200 UTC WAS 1.8 INCHES. BROWNSVILLE TEXAS REPORTED NEARLY THREE INCHES OF RAIN...ALSO DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. TAMPICO MEXICO REPORTED A 48-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 13.19 INCHES OF RAIN. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS STRETCH FROM THE MEXICO COAST NEAR VILLAHERMOSA TO 26N100W BETWEEN SABINAS HIDALGO AND MONTERREY... AND ELSEWHERE INLAND IN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. OTHER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 106W IN MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE MEXICO EASTERN PACIFIC COAST BETWEEN 98W AND 106W. AN EASTERN U.S.A. COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 29N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS...AND FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FLORIDA. FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 41N21W TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...TO 35N26W TO 33N40W AND 34N54W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N56W TO 24N69W...PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS HOVERING OVER EASTERN JAMAICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 68W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...AND FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W...AROUND THE 28N56W CYCLONIC CENTER. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N38W...32N56W TO 29N68W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ALONG 27N/28N AT 80W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 011739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N/WESTERN CUBA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS RELATED TO THE JAMAICA CYCLONIC CENTER. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED JUST TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 24N TO 20N17W TO 10N21W AND 7N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N30W TO 6N40W TO 8N51W...INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 7N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N TO THE EAST OF 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF ARLENE IS A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N103W IN WEST CENTRAL MEXICO. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR MONTERREY MEXICO FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/1200 UTC WAS 1.8 INCHES. BROWNSVILLE TEXAS REPORTED NEARLY THREE INCHES OF RAIN...ALSO DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. TAMPICO MEXICO REPORTED A 48-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 13.19 INCHES OF RAIN. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS STRETCH FROM THE MEXICO COAST NEAR VILLAHERMOSA TO 26N100W BETWEEN SABINAS HIDALGO AND MONTERREY... AND ELSEWHERE INLAND IN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. OTHER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 106W IN MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE MEXICO EASTERN PACIFIC COAST BETWEEN 98W AND 106W. AN EASTERN U.S.A. COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 29N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS...AND FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FLORIDA. FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 41N21W TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...TO 35N26W TO 33N40W AND 34N54W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N56W TO 24N69W...PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS HOVERING OVER EASTERN JAMAICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 68W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...AND FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W...AROUND THE 28N56W CYCLONIC CENTER. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N38W...32N56W TO 29N68W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ALONG 27N/28N AT 80W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT