000 AXNT20 KNHC 010547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MOISTURE SURGE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 57W-64W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 21N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS ANALYZED BENEATH AN UPPER LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 77W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 24N00W 20N14W TO THE E ATLC ALONG 11N20W 7N30W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 7N30W 6N43W 8N53W TO 7N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA WELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 4N-16N BETWEEN 1W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 20W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ARLENE IS NOW A REMNANT 1002 MB LOW OVER MEXICO AT 20N99W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER SW MEXICO FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 100W-105W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 105W FROM THE E PACIFIC MEXICAN COAST TO S TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N W OF 93W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 28N W OF 90W. ELSEWHERE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N FLORIDA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE WHILE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 70W-75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 68W-71W. ELSEWHERE... WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO EL SALVADOR. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 70W-72W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE N OF 20N E OF 70W TO W AFRICA. EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N77W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 010547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MOISTURE SURGE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 57W-64W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 21N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS ANALYZED BENEATH AN UPPER LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 77W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 24N00W 20N14W TO THE E ATLC ALONG 11N20W 7N30W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 7N30W 6N43W 8N53W TO 7N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA WELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 4N-16N BETWEEN 1W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 20W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ARLENE IS NOW A REMNANT 1002 MB LOW OVER MEXICO AT 20N99W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER SW MEXICO FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 100W-105W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 105W FROM THE E PACIFIC MEXICAN COAST TO S TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N W OF 93W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 28N W OF 90W. ELSEWHERE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N FLORIDA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE WHILE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 70W-75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 68W-71W. ELSEWHERE... WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO EL SALVADOR. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 70W-72W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE N OF 20N E OF 70W TO W AFRICA. EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N77W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA