000 AXNT20 KNHC 272357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE S GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 19N92W WHICH IS E OF THE A TROPICAL WAVE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TO THE NW OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE COVERS THE S GULF AS DEPICTED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA S OF 22N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 97W BEING ENHANCED BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE UPPER TROUGH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE MEXICO TONIGHT. THESE RAINS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD INTO NE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 37W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE AS INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 35W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 66W S OF 19N TO OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE E EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM S INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE AREA OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IN GULF OF MEXICO IS ALONG 93W-94W S OF 25N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO MOVING NW NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ARE ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY DISCUSSED THERE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 20N8W SW TO 17N14W THEN S INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 7N21W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N43W 6N49W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 18W-24W AND FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 40W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA SW ALONG 26N91W TO NEAR 23N96W WHICH IS AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR NAPLES INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF E OF 91W WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER THE S GULF DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 30N TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER WITH A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH OVER S GEORGIA. THIS SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE NW GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NW AWAY FROM THE BROAD LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE N AND E OUT OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE E CARIBBEAN TO MOVE OVER THE SURFACE LOW IN THE S GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN N FLOW ALOFT WHILE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WILL AS W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS. THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 64W-72W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W TO 11N79W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING A SMALL AREA OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE IN E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND INTO NW CARIBBEAN BY WED. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE WED AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN THU TO THE W CARIBBEAN BY SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN NAPLES AND MELBOURNE CONTINUING TO BEYOND 32N70W COVERING THE W ATLC OF 73W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N54W ALONG 30N66W TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC S OF 25N BETWEEN 62W-73W PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N BETWEEN 63W-73W TO ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. A WEAK UPPER LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N51W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N39W ALONG 31N43W TO 32N47W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 15W-35W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N26W ALONG 29N28W TO 27N33W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS ARE UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 22N TO NEAR 65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW 000 AXNT20 KNHC 272357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE S GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 19N92W WHICH IS E OF THE A TROPICAL WAVE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TO THE NW OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE COVERS THE S GULF AS DEPICTED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA S OF 22N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 97W BEING ENHANCED BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE UPPER TROUGH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE MEXICO TONIGHT. THESE RAINS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD INTO NE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 37W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE AS INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 35W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 66W S OF 19N TO OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE E EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM S INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE AREA OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IN GULF OF MEXICO IS ALONG 93W-94W S OF 25N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO MOVING NW NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ARE ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY DISCUSSED THERE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 20N8W SW TO 17N14W THEN S INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 7N21W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N43W 6N49W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 18W-24W AND FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 40W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA SW ALONG 26N91W TO NEAR 23N96W WHICH IS AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR NAPLES INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF E OF 91W WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER THE S GULF DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 30N TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER WITH A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH OVER S GEORGIA. THIS SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE NW GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NW AWAY FROM THE BROAD LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE N AND E OUT OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE E CARIBBEAN TO MOVE OVER THE SURFACE LOW IN THE S GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN N FLOW ALOFT WHILE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WILL AS W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS. THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 64W-72W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W TO 11N79W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING A SMALL AREA OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE IN E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND INTO NW CARIBBEAN BY WED. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE WED AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN THU TO THE W CARIBBEAN BY SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN NAPLES AND MELBOURNE CONTINUING TO BEYOND 32N70W COVERING THE W ATLC OF 73W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N54W ALONG 30N66W TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC S OF 25N BETWEEN 62W-73W PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N BETWEEN 63W-73W TO ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. A WEAK UPPER LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N51W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N39W ALONG 31N43W TO 32N47W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 15W-35W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N26W ALONG 29N28W TO 27N33W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS ARE UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 22N TO NEAR 65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW