000 AXNT20 KNHC 270547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 15N31W TO 7N34W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE ALIGNS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CAPTURED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE WAVE IS OF THE WRN EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 33W-38W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N58W TO 11N63W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE ERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 61W-70W...AND N OF THE AXIS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 56W-61W. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MAY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING S TOWARDS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE FAR WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 23N90W TO 16N93W DRIFTING WNW AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE LIES IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SRN GULF. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N WHERE A SURFACE LOW MAY BE FORMING. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER SRN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 88W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE AXIS N OF 18N...AND NE OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 82W-89W. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY KEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE SRN GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM AS THE WAVE DRIFTS WNW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 19N ALONG 23N8W TO THE COAST AT 17N16W AND OVER WATER TO 11N23W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 11N23W ALONG 9N34W 5N46W 3N54W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 39W FROM 6N-10N. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 14N-18N...AND WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 41W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE SITS OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SE GULF FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 81W-89W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW GULF. STRONG ACTIVITY IS OVER MUCH OF SRN MEXICO. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WNW WITH A POSSIBLE LOW FORMING ALONG THE AXIS OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. ENHANCED MOISTURE EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALOFT...A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N102W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE SE GULF. STRONG DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW GULF MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... ENHANCED MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS NOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF 80W...WHILE A FEW MORE CONCENTRATED CLUSTERS OF ACTIVITY ARE OVER CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO AN AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT THAT IS BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS HELPING ENHANCE CONVECTION NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAIL. THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 64W-71W. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SW...AND THE WAVE MOVES W PLACING IT UNDER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...STRONGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD FLARE UP OVER THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE ERN SEABOARD ALLOWING FOR MOIST SWLY FLOW TO COVER MUCH OF THE WRN ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 72W-80W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF TO NEAR 33N65W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N69W. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 65W-71W. A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE ISLANDS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 56W-62W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED AROUND A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N54W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 32N47W. A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 25W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 31N29W TO 28N35W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONSISTING OF DRY AND DUSTY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-55W...AS WELL AS N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON 000 AXNT20 KNHC 270547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 15N31W TO 7N34W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE ALIGNS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CAPTURED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE WAVE IS OF THE WRN EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 33W-38W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N58W TO 11N63W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE ERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 61W-70W...AND N OF THE AXIS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 56W-61W. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MAY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING S TOWARDS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE FAR WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 23N90W TO 16N93W DRIFTING WNW AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE LIES IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SRN GULF. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N WHERE A SURFACE LOW MAY BE FORMING. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER SRN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 88W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE AXIS N OF 18N...AND NE OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 82W-89W. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY KEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE SRN GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM AS THE WAVE DRIFTS WNW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 19N ALONG 23N8W TO THE COAST AT 17N16W AND OVER WATER TO 11N23W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 11N23W ALONG 9N34W 5N46W 3N54W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 39W FROM 6N-10N. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 14N-18N...AND WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 41W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE SITS OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SE GULF FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 81W-89W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW GULF. STRONG ACTIVITY IS OVER MUCH OF SRN MEXICO. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WNW WITH A POSSIBLE LOW FORMING ALONG THE AXIS OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. ENHANCED MOISTURE EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALOFT...A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N102W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE SE GULF. STRONG DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW GULF MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... ENHANCED MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS NOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF 80W...WHILE A FEW MORE CONCENTRATED CLUSTERS OF ACTIVITY ARE OVER CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO AN AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT THAT IS BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS HELPING ENHANCE CONVECTION NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAIL. THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 64W-71W. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SW...AND THE WAVE MOVES W PLACING IT UNDER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...STRONGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD FLARE UP OVER THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE ERN SEABOARD ALLOWING FOR MOIST SWLY FLOW TO COVER MUCH OF THE WRN ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 72W-80W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF TO NEAR 33N65W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N69W. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 65W-71W. A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE ISLANDS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 56W-62W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED AROUND A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N54W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 32N47W. A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 25W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 31N29W TO 28N35W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONSISTING OF DRY AND DUSTY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-55W...AS WELL AS N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON